The GBP/USD may continue its falling | 20 March 2015

Euro

The Eurozone macroeconomic data came out moderately negative. The February Germany consumer price index remained unchanged at the level of 0.9% in the final assessment; the France CPI was 0.7% vs. 0.6% and -1.0% in January. But the euro zone industrial production showed decline by 0.1% in January against the expected growth by 0.3%. Namely the euro growth was conditioned purely by speculative factors. The Greece concessions in negotiations with creditors are already known and unlikely will attract attention. The new government reform fuse has not lasted for a long time. The February US retail sales have seriously disappointed. The retail sales have fallen by 0.6% after decrease by 0.8% in January and the growth forecast by 0.6%.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target of 1.0300-1.0320.

Pound

Paying no attention to the US data the British pound fell after the Bank of England governor told about the inexpedient hurry rate increase. The UK construction sector production volume is expected with an increase by 1.4% in January after 0.4% in December. But taking into account the pound weakness, we count on its decline and even today under the dollar pressure.

Trading recommendations

It is now recommended to short to the target of 1.4750-1.4770. The second target is the level of 1.4500-1.4520.

Yen

The yen decrease (actually the dollar decline against the yen) was stopped by the US stock indices sharp increase. S & P500 added 1, 26%, Dow Jones increased by 1, 47%. The Japanese Nikkei index225 is growing by 1.44%. At the moment the pair USD/JPY quotations remains in range. The January industrial production report showed an increase by 3.7% against the expectations of 4.0% and 4.0% in December. The production utilization factor increased by 3.6% against 2.0% in December. The data is quite good.

Meanwhile, according to the Tokyo Stock Exchange, retail investors, fearing the market’s superfast growth and its overbought in large volumes began to get rid of the shares. Over the last week they sold assets in amount of 946 million dollars.

Trading recommendations

It is now recommended to buy with the first target of 121.50-121.70. When the first target is overcome, the new target will be the level of 122.00-122.20.