Preliminary CPI in Spain for March showed the first case of deflation in consumer prices since 2009 (-0.2% y/y). The inflation report in Germany also showed an inflation slowdown. The preliminary index of consumer prices rose in March by 1% y/y vs. 1.2% in February, the expectations were at 1.1%. The euro zone inflation data will be released on Monday 31 March. The weak release will strengthen the further stimulus measures expectations from the ECB.
This week key event is the ECB meeting on April 3 and a report on the U.S. labor market on April 4.
This week important level is the resistance 1.3874 the break of which may mean a further medium-term growth, but this variant is an alternative if we consider the USA fundamental data. The second important level is 1.3703. If the pair breaks this level it will fall further.
Taking into consideration technical and fundamental we expect a downward trading.
This week news background is no less important than on the previous one. That's why we need to carefully monitor the outcome data for the UK, which can also have a significant impact on the pound which still tends to grow.
The pound continued to strengthen amid growing consumer confidence index in March to the highest level for more than six years. The service sector of the country has demonstrated a maximum growth in January for nearly 6 years since February 2008.
A downward movement may happen only in the first day of the current trading week.
If the pair breaks 1.6660 it will continue growing. The pair will go to 1.6720 then. The alternative variant is a correction wave back to 1.6550.
The news that can impact the pair is the Non Farm Payrolls from the USA. As usually Non Farms will be published on Friday. The data can change the current upward tendency to a downward one.
The buy signal is strong and confirmed. The pair is growing. If it consolidates above 103.20 the growth will be continued to 103.60.
The pair may bounce back from any mentioned level. The downward target may become the marks 101.70 and 101.20. The depth of decrease depends on this week fundamental data.
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