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Fundamental analysis is one of the most complicated and at the same time critical methods of the Forex analysis. A special emphasis in this method is put on reports made by key persons of global economic arena. One of such persons is Mario Drahgi – the European Central Bank President.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis in Forex allows to analyze various messages rendered by global events. The major goal of the fundamental Forex analysis is to determine which events can influence international exchange rates. News about stock trading and large market‐makers, international exchange rates of central banks, economic policy of governments, changes in national political life as well as various rumors and expectations matter for this type of Forex analysis.

Fundamental analysis is one of the most complicated and at the same time crucial types of the live Forex analysis. Success of the Forex fundamental analysis lays in determination of a clear mutual relation between two national currencies. For that purpose, one needs to understand how relations between those two states develop, know history of currency exchange rates, be able to forecast a total result and find a relation between events seeming to be completely untied at the first sight.

16 - 20
January
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week from January 16 to January 20:   XAU/USD: I would recommend selling gold for two reasons. First of all, this week we might expect US currency quotes rising, which would have a negative impact on gold price. The US macroeconomic statistics published on previous Friday in

09 - 13
January
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week from January 9th to January 13th:   XAU/USD: Consider selling gold during this week for two reasons. Firs of all, I expect US dollar quotes growth, that traditionally puts pressure on gold. The US macroeconomic statistics of previous week indicates that the Fed might co

26 - 30
December
weekly
forecast

The forecast for week 26-30 of December:   XAU/USD: Despite significant gold sales in the past two months, we do not see considerable upward correction. For the last six days gold is in the narrow flat of 1125.75 -1142.31, and considering the strong US Dollar upward trend we might expect quo

19 - 23
December
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 19 - 23 of December: XAU/USD: This week growth of gold is expected for the below reasons. Firstly, we can expect correction of US dollar as investors will be taking profit on long positions. USDX dollar basket index is being now traded at High since January 2003,

12 - 16
December
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week December 12-16: XAU/USD: In the first half of the week a decrease in quotations may be expected due to US dollar strengthening and growth on stock market. Both factors are negative for gold. The reason is ECB announcement on Thursday of the stimulus program extension unt

05 - 09
December
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 5 - 9 December: XAU/USD: Precious metal demonstrates weakness for four trading weeks in a row and, in my opinion, there should be a technical correction for two reasons. First of all, the US stock market, to which gold has a close inverse correlation, got to its historic

28 November - 02
December
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 28 November - 2 December: XAU/USD: The following week is quite eventful. First of all, November release on US employment is to be published on 2 December. As we know from the history of exchange trading, gold and dollar move in opposite directions. In case of strengthen

21 - 25
November
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 21 - 25 of November: XAU/USD: Over the last two weeks gold has not been in demand among investors. This week we will see a continuation of the downtrend again. First, US dollar rate in the foreign exchange market has surged. Since gold and US currency are traded i

14 - 18
November
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week November 14 - 18: XAU/USD: Gold finished the last trading week by decline 5.8%, which is the maximum weekly drop this year. Famous agencies Reuters, Bloomberg and Dow Jones promised us collapse of US dollar and strong growth of gold if Trump wins the US presidential

24 - 28
October
weekly
forecast

XAU/USD: In the coming week you had better sell the precious metal for two reasons. Firstly, the US corporations that are accountable for the third quarter last week, pleased investors strong data that allows you to count on growth in the US stock market quotations. Capital inflows into risky instr

17 - 21
October
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week 17 - 21 October: XAU/USD: In the first half of the week gold may show weakness against strengthening of the US currency. On Tuesday, the release on US inflation for September will be published, which may encourage investors with strong data as consumer spending grew and man

10 - 14
October
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week October 10 - 14: XAU/USD: In the beginning of the week we should expect correctional growth to 1267/1279 as investors are going to settle in profit on short positions cause US dollar is weak. The release on the US labor market for September was worse than the forecas

03 - 07
October
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 3 - 7 of October: XAU/USD: During the week we should sell gold for two reasons. Firstly, increased"risk appetite" usually has a negative impact on the price of gold. Now investors are actively building their carry trade positions against reluctance of the

26 - 30
September
weekly
forecast

Forecast for September 26 - 30: XAU/USD: Despite the fact that oil finished the last week in the "red zone", and stock markets in the "green" one, the last week, gold had been in demand. This contradiction is temporary and this week gold will be in a recession. The yellow metal was supported

19 - 23
September
weekly
forecast

Forecast for 19 一 23 of September: XAU/USD: This week we should sell gold as the negative news background was formed. The first reason for sales is strengthening of the US currency. Gold prices are denominated in US dollars. Along with growth of the US currency, gold price is getting into tr

12 - 16
September
weekly
forecast

The falling Gold price should be used to open Buy positions. Firstly, outflow of capital from risky assets will contribute to increased demand in safe assets (primarily including gold and Japanese Yen). On Friday, September 9, the US stock market demonstrated massive sales: in one day, DJ30 and S

05 - 09
September
weekly
forecast

The forecast September 5 - 9: XAU/USD: This week, there is a mixed background. On the one hand, "risk appetite" is growing thereby putting Gold under pressure, because gold is a safe asset for investors. The last week the world's leading stock markets finished in the "green z

29 August - 02
September
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week from August 29 to September 2: XAU/USD: This week we should sell Gold because there is a steady upward trend for US currency. Usually, gold investors treat it negatively. Many traders called gold "anti-dollar". Why can we expect the US currency to strengthe

22 - 26
August
weekly
forecast

Forecast 22 - 26 of August: XAU/USD: The last two weeks, this metal has been staying in the flat and this week a mixed background works for it. On the one hand, a moderate growth of yield of 10-years' US government bonds, which closely correlates against the yellow metal, can encourage bulls

08 - 12
August
weekly
forecast

Forecast for 8 一12 August: XAU/USD: The first week of August was closed by gold in the "red" zone, and this trend is expected to continue this week as well. Firstly, in the G-7 countries, inflation on expectations are falling, which is usually negative for gold used by investors to

01 - 05
August
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week August 1 一 5: XAU/USD: In the first trading day of the week, the precious metal may demonstrate a moderate growth of quotations on the background of correction of usd. This drop is caused by weak GDP report for the second quarter. However, then the gold may get under the wa

25 - 29
July
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 25 – 29 of July: XAU/USD: This week we have two reasons, why we should expect a moderate decline of gold. First, strengthening of US dollar usually has a negative impact on gold and with the account of strong US reports, we can expect a continued upward tren

18 - 22
July
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 18 – 22 of July: XAU/USD: Investors are buying gold on pullbacks, but the mixed fundamental background does not allow to determine the only direction for this trading week. On the one hand, this week we can expect a decrease of the "risk appetite" again

11 - 15
July
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week 11 - 15 of July: XAU/USD: The six trading weeks in a row has been closed by the precious with growth. Thus, many traders believe correction is inevitable. This week gold will still be in demand due to reduced risk appetite. Despite the confident performance of the US stock

04 - 08
July
weekly
forecast

XAU/USD: It may seem that the financial markets are stabilized after the UK referendum and in this context, the gold has no drivers for growth. In my opinion, it is the calm before the storm. Firstly, ranking agencies lowered UK and EU, which will make investors revise their strategies for risky as

27 June - 01
July
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week June 27 - July 1: XAU/USD: Panic in the financial markets is the perfect environment for the precious metal. Historically, gold is regarded by investors as a safe asset. When all markets are in storm, everybody chooses this "safe haven." In this regard, afte

20 - 24
June
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 20 - 24 of June: XAU/USD: The last three trading weeks, gold has been finishing in the "green zone" on the background of outflow of capital from risky assets. Brexit may happen as early as this Thursday and then we can see it on $1,400 /ounce. Otherwise, we c

13 - 17
June
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 13 一 17 of June: XAU/USD: This week a mixed background is being formed for gold. On the one hand, reduced "appetite for risk" is a positive factor for gold. A notable surge of the fear index VIX of the last week indicates an outflow of capital from risky ass

06 - 10
June
weekly
forecast

XAU/USD: Friday's upward movement in gold, in my opinion, is a correction, as the precious metal is under the pressure during the last four trading weeks. By the end of May, the quotations of XAU/USD fell by 6% and the correction is quite a natural phenomenon. However, many traders may have a questi

30 May - 03
June
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week May 30 一 June 3: XAU/USD: The last four weeks gold has finished trading in the "red zone", which indicates presence of strong sellers. In my view, the downtrend will continue this week, and we will see a test of the psychological level $1,200 per ounce. Th

23 - 27
May
weekly
forecast

Forecast for 23 -27 May XAU/USD: The last three weeks of trading the precious metal has been under pressure. However, in my view, the downtrend is not over and it will gain momentum. Why? Firstly, the speakers on the last week - FOMC representatives (Sirs Dudley and Williams) mentioned that inve

16 - 20
May
weekly
forecast

XAU/USD: During the week we should open Sell position for two reasons. Firstly, low inflation expectations in the G-7 countries is a negative factor for "yellow metals".On Thursday, the Bank of England signaled to market participants about drop of consumer activity in England. In Germany

25 - 29
April
weekly
forecast

The forecast for April 25 - April 29: XAU/USD: This week we expect a rising trend. The main driver of growth will be decline of the US currency that is positive for XAU/USD. On Wednesday April 27 the US Federal Reserve will run its meeting on monetary policy, from which we expect the same

18 - 22
April
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 18 - 25 of April: XAU/USD: The coming week is going to form a mixed background. On the one hand, reduced "appetite for risk", is usually a positive factor for the precious metal. In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 6.7% y/y. Figures are still high a

11 - 15
April
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week April 11 - April 15: XAU/USD: The coming week, a mixed background works for the precious metal. On the one hand, reduced "appetite for risk" will contribute to demand in safe assets such as gold. On Monday, US corporates release their season reports and almost

04 - 08
April
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week April 4 - April 8: XAU/USD: In my opinion, growth of quotations should be used to build short positions. Now we have no positive news for this metal. First, based on results of the past week, yield on 10-years' US bonds, which is closely linked to XAU/USD dropped by 0.1

28 March - 01
April
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week of March 28 - April 1: XAU/USD: March has ended and if you look at the history of the last ten years, this month "yellow metal" can turn into an active asset. In seven cases out of ten, we had observed a drop of prices. Will this trend continue this time?

21 - 25
March
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week March 21 - 25: XAU/USD: Commodities are in a steady demand, but the "yellow metal" is to give its positions. Gold price was positively influenced by decline of the US currency: over the past three weeks the dollar index basket (USDX) has lost 3.15%. It was als

14 - 18
March
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week of March 14-18: XAU/USD: During the week, we should expect drop of the precious metal for two reasons. Firstly, ECB decided about a further ease of its monetary policy, which supported demand in "risky" assets. Eurozone monetary authorities decided to decre

07 - 11
March
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 7-11 of March: XAU/USD: Many traders wonder what will happen to the quotations of gold? Some of them point to a strong overboughtness of the yellow metal and predict correction. Others say that growth is not over yet, and we will see a hike to psychological

15 - 19
February
weekly
forecast

Forecast for 15 - 19 of February: XAU/USD: The last four weeks, this precious metal has been showing a strong growth of quotations on the background of weakened US dollar and outflow of capital from the risky assets. Since the beginning of the year, the broad market index S&P500 had dipped b

08 - 12
February
weekly
forecast

Forecast for week 8 - 12 of February: XAU/USD: In spite of growth of quotations of the yellow metal in the last three trading weeks, this asset continues to look weak from a fundamental point of view. The last week the precious metal was in demand on the background of weakness of the US dolla

01 - 05
February
weekly
forecast

Forecast for 1-5 February trading week XAU/USD: In January the precious metal was closed in “green zone” and it proved a consistent pattern, which we discussed in webinar. However, the reason for further optimism is sufficiently small. Firstly, in the first month, the yield on 10-year government b

25 - 29
January
weekly
forecast

Forecast 25 - 29 January: XAU/USD: In the first half of the week the precious metal will be under pressure caused by the demand in risky assets. In the first half of January, XAU/USD has enjoyed a steady demand in the face of strong sales in global equity markets. Investors are getting rid of r

18 - 22
January
weekly
forecast

Forecast for 18 - 22 of January: XAU/USD: In the first half of the week the yellow metal can demonstrate strength against the background of poor in risk appetite of investors. Stock markets are still in a fever; the main cause of this chaos - the Chinese stock market has dipped by 15.32%

11 - 15
January
weekly
forecast

Forecast 11 - 15 of January: XAU/USD: So, the gold has reaffirmed its commitment to growth in the first month of the year. In my view, period of growth is about to finish and we expect the downward trend to emerge soon. The last week, XAU/USD showed growth on the background of geopolitical

28 December 2015 - 01 January 2016
weekly
forecast

Forecast for week 28 - 31 of December: XAU/USD: In the last week of 2015, the yellow metal is expected to show a moderate growth of quotations. Correction of oil boosted growth of return of 10-years' government bonds in the G-7 countries, which is a positive factor for gold. Stabilization of t

21 - 25
December
weekly
forecast

Forecast for 21- 25 December: XAU/USD: In my opinion, potential of downtrend on gold has not exhausted and within the week we should increase short positions on short-term growth of quotes for two reasons. Firstly, FED raised the interest rate by 0.25% on its meeting on Wednesday, December 16.

14 - 18
December
weekly
forecast

Forecast 14 - 18 of December: XAU/USD: This week we expect continuation of the long-term downward trend for two reasons. Firstly, FOMC meeting on December 16 can decide to tighten the monetary policy, which will contribute to a growing demand in the US dollar in the foreign exchange marke

07 - 11
December
weekly
forecast

Forecast 7 - 11 of December: XAU/USD: In the first half of the week we should expect continuation of the corrective movement to the psychological level of 1100/1115 per ounce. After the index basket of the dollar set a multi-year highs at around 100.58, investors began to partially close long p

30 November - 04
December
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week November 30 - December 4: XAU/USD: Despite the fact that the quotes of precious metal having been dropping for six weeks in run, gold is still an overvalued asset. Investors are now focused on two key factors that have a downward pressure on the XAU/USD. Firstly, it is t

23 - 27
November
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week November 23-27: XAU/USD: From Tuesday November 24 we are to open short positions with precious metals for two reasons. One is that the second estimate of US GDP for the third quarter will be published this day. Revised data for the most part of macroeconomic indicators

16 - 20
November
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week 16 - 20 of November: XAU/USD: So, the last week the precious metal had set a fresh Low for the past five and a half years and now there is a danger for gold to decline to about $1000/oz. Will we see this level this week? In my opinion, no, but the "yellow metal&q

26 - 30
October
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week October 26 - October 30:   XAU/USD: This week we should open short positions in precious metals for three reasons. Firstly, the verbal intervention of the ECB chief Mario Draghi made on 22 October knocked the single European currency down, which caused vertical g

19 - 23
October
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week October 19 - October 23:   XAU/USD: "In the coming weeks we should open short positions with the "yellow metal" for two reasons. Firstly, G-7 countries have low expectations on inflation and on this background, gold seems to be an overvalued asset. For

12 - 16
October
weekly
forecast

Forecast for 12 - 16 of October: XAU/USD: Despite the negative fundamental background, the "yellow metal" does not intend to fall down. It should be noted that last week growth of quotations was observed on the whole commodity market. This factor is caused by weakening of the US curre

05 - 09
October
weekly
forecast

Forecast October 5 & ndash; October 9: XAU/USD: During the week we should increment short positions on growth of quotations. Expectations on inflation in G-7 are still quite low. In September, the leader in terms of low yield of 10-years' government bonds, which reflected investors' inf

28 September - 02
October
weekly
forecast

The forecast for the week September 28 - October 2: XAU/USD: Last week, the precious metal took advantage of weakness of the stock markets against scandal around Volkswagen corporation. Investors sold off shares worldwide and went into safe assets, especially gold. Gold feels very comfortable

21 - 25
September
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week September 21 - 25: XAU/USD: Decision of the US Federal Reserve not to change its monetary policy on September 17 rendered a short-term support to gold, as the US dollar is now being sold. However, in the coming week, in my opinion, we should expect development of the downw

14 - 18
September
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week: 14th - 18th of September: XAU/USD: This week, trend on the & ldquo; yellow metal & rdquo; will be determined by two key factors: dynamics of oil as well as the FOMC decision on monetary policy. We begin our review with the first factor. On Friday, September 11,

07 - 11
September
weekly
forecast

Forecast for September 7 - September 11: XAU/USD: During the week we should expect predominance of "bearish" sentiment. Firstly, growth of yield of US two-years' treasury bonds after release of the labor market report will contribute to demand for the US currency and thus will pu

31 August - 04
September
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week August 31 - September 4: XAU/USD: During the week we expect downward trend. Firstly, the world stock markets stopped panic sales, which makes investment in "safe assets" (gold) less attractive. Investors begin to re-evaluate risks of slowing down China's economy

24 - 28
August
weekly
forecast

The forecast for week August 24 - August 28 XAU/USD: During the week trading will be determined by two key factors. Firstly, this is a trend in global equity markets. Financial instability in China has contributed to the flight of investors from "risky assets" to safe assets, which spe

17 - 21
August
weekly
forecast

The forecast for week 17 - 21 of August: XAU/USD: Correctional movement of gold is about to finish and soon we expect development of a new downward trend because of the two reasons. Firstly, inflation expectations of the world's leading economy are still quite low, and for the most part it is be

27 - 31
July
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week 27 - 31 of July: XAU/USD: This week we should expect continuation of the bearish trend. First, the last week yield of the US 10-year treasuries fell by 10 points indicating that decline of inflation expectations in this leading economy. To a large extent, it was caused b

20 - 24
July
weekly
forecast

Forecast for July 20 – 24: XAU/USD: This week we have at least three reasons to expect a descending tendency to go on. 1. US currency is demonstrating a confident growth of quotations. Speaking in the Congress, US Fed Reserve's Chair J. Yellen confirmed intentions of the monetary authoriti

13 - 17
July
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week 13 - 17 of July: XAU/USD: This week we are selling precious metal on growth of quotations. Firstly, investors will open short positions on the back of a positive decision to extend assistance to Greece. Secondly, continuous negotiations in Vienna on the nuclear problem i

06 - 10
July
weekly
forecast

Referendum in Greece is about to set a trend Forecast for the week July 6 - 10 : XAU/USD: Resolution of the question with “Greek debt” will set dynamics for the first half of the trading week. New negotiations between Athens and trio of creditors are scheduled for July 6. If parties

29 June - 03
July
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week 29 June – 3 July: XAU/USD: This week we shall expect development of an ascending tendency. The past weekend, Greece was not able to settle with its creditors which puts risks in Euro zone to the very high level. In periods of instability, precious metal is of a high

22 - 26
June
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week 22 - 26 of June: XAU/USD: This week we shall expect that flat tendency on this metal will continue. From one hand, Fed Reserve lowered its forecast on macroeconomic indicators and US dollar started to be actively sold against this background. Descending tendency as applied

15 - 19
June
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week 15 - 19 of June: XAU/USD: The main event of the week and month will be the meeting of Fed Reserve on June 17, Wednesday. Financial institutes will look for an orienting point from it on change of the monetary policy. The most part of released macroeconomic indicators point

08 - 12
June
weekly
forecast

Forecast for week 8 – 12 June: XAU/USD: According to results of the week, yield of the US treasuries grew by 28 p. till the level 2.40%, which points out growth of inflation expectations and will support gold in the first half of the week. Though growth of quotations shall be used for sh

01 - 05
June
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week 1st - 5th of June: XAU/USD: This week we have to expect that a descending trend would continue. Firstly, investors expect that FRS will toughen monetary policy which will boost demand in USD and, in its turn, to increase pressure on precious metal. The last week, yield diff

25 - 29
May
weekly
forecast

Forecast for the week 25 – 29 of May: XAU/USD: This week you are recommended to open Sell for two reasons. First, 2 months' middle-term correction on US currency has finished and now we have a new cycle of growth of quotations. Financial markets still await for news about increase of the interest r

18 - 22
May
weekly
forecast

XAU/USD: For the first part of the week, this metal will be demanded as US currency is sold on Forex market. Index of US dollar basket USDX closed the past week on 93.29 and negative potential is not exhausted yet. Investors are very sceptical now about US currency because of weak US releases and

11 - 15
May
weekly
forecast

Last week XAU/USD finished in “green area”. The oil price has updated new High of a year, which caused a rise in yields of US Treasury bonds and supported the demand for the precious metal. Finally, the &ldquoyellow metal” trading week has finished with 0,87% growth. During the week the platinum g

27 April - 01
May
weekly
forecast

Euro The European currency declined at the beginning of the last session but it rose at the end of the week. According to the preliminary results, the Eurozone manufacturing sector purchasing managers index PMI fell to 51.9 in April against 52.2 in March, but it was forecasted 52.6, the service s

20 - 24
April
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro could decrease again against the dollar. The euro was supported by the US economic data which showed once again disappointing results. Perhaps the single currency growth could be more ambitious if there was not a Greek problem as Athens is closer to a default amid their unwillingnes

13 - 17
April
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro has fallen against the dollar. The new hopes that the US may increase the interest rates while the central bank holds the euro area quantitative easing program again prompted the market to give preference to the dollar. The fact that Greece made in time all the loan repayments to th

06 - 10
April
weekly
forecast

Euro Eurozone has not published interesting macroeconomic data. Therefore, dynamics will depend on the US statistics. The market will play out the US data release as namely the labor market report can clarify that we should expect from the Fed any steps towards the monetary policy tightening duri

30 March - 03
April
weekly
forecast

Euro The pair is under the improved attitude pressure towards the dollar as well as the euro sales amid the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program. The Eurozone annual growth rate, smaller than expected M3 (4.0% in February compared with expected growth by 4.3%), as well as a continued uncer

23 - 27
March
weekly
forecast

Euro The pressure on the pair improves the market’s attitude towards the dollar as well as increased fears about the Greek exit from the Eurozone as the Eurozone leaders’ comments at the EU summit last Thursday reduced the likelihood of their conflict resolution with the Greek government. The pai

16 - 20
March
weekly
forecast

Euro The Eurozone macroeconomic data came out moderately negative. The February Germany consumer price index remained unchanged at the level of 0.9% in the final assessment; the France CPI was 0.7% vs. 0.6% and -1.0% in January. But the euro zone industrial production showed decline by 0.1% in Ja

09 - 13
March
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro remains weak: the pair EUR/USD weakened to the September 2003 lows after the European Central Bank March meeting. The ECB finished another meeting and left interest rates at the record low of 0.05% on the annual basis, keeping the monetary policy main parameters unchanged. But the

02 - 06
March
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro partially tried to recover its position. The pair got under pressure after the American statistics significant block release. The US data showed that the durable goods orders volume increased by 2.8% in January after the December decrease by 3.7%. The forecasted medians assumed tha

23 - 27
February
weekly
forecast

Euro Last Friday the Euro zone and the Greece finance ministers took the third attempt for the last 10 days to align the assistance extension program to Greece. According to Berlin, Athens concessions can be more dangerous than the Greece exit from the Eurozone as they can give power to the left

16 - 20
February
weekly
forecast

Euro The pair euro/dollar will stay in a higher range, supported by the news that the ECB had provided additional liquidity to the Bank of Greece in the amount of 5 billion euros. The pair is also supported by the market deteriorating relationship towards the dollar after the disappointing retail

09 - 13
February
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro rose against the US dollar that can be considered as a paradox in the current political climate when the conflict between the Greek government and the club creditors’ financing assistant Greece program intensifies. The EU important economic data – the Germany industrial production

02 - 06
February
weekly
forecast

Euro The Germany unemployment fell in January which had supported the euro in the first half of the day. According to the data, the number of unemployed fell by 9,000 in January after decline by 25,000 people in December. Analysts had expected a decline by 10 000 in January. The Germany unemploym

26 - 30
January
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro sets new records. After the European Central Bank head Mario Draghi’s recent statements the euro has fallen to the record low for more than nine years - now the euro does not exceed the dollar that is at the level of 1.1207. Starting with spring, from March 2015, the regulator plan

19 - 23
January
weekly
forecast

 Euro The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly announced the euro/franc lower limit refusal. This refusal led to the euro strong decline against the Swiss franc that also had a negative impact on the pair EUR/USD that formed a new low since 2005. Although the euro decline dynamics against the US dol

12 - 16
January
weekly
forecast

 Euro The US dollar rose against major currencies amid the traders’ fears decrease about the global economy and deflation prospects. Expectations that the ECB will begin the QE quantitative easing program soon are growing. This program is planned to reduce investors' concerns about the eurozone d

05 - 09
January
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro fell to the two-year low expecting that the European Central Bank meeting will be held on January 22 and the ECB will launch the government bond purchases program. Now the euro area inflation is below the Central Bank target value of 2% that helps to reduce the oil price on the worl

29 December 2014 - 02 January 2015
weekly
forecast

Euro The pair EUR/USD rebounded upwards several times, starting from the two-year low of 1.2160-1.2180 having reached the high of 1.2200-1.2220. Then the pair fell with a gap. The US dollar regained success amid the Tuesday gross domestic product release that showed the US higher economic growth

22 - 26
December
weekly
forecast

Euro The European political events still hold back the euro growth. The Greek parliament failed to elect a president in the first round of voting (Stavros Dimas). The Greek three-year bond yields rose from 9.75% to 10.13%. In addition, three creditors approved the new Greece budget. Switzerland h

15 - 19
December
weekly
forecast

Euro The US economic data showed impressive results and could strengthen opinions that the US Federal Reserve can start earlier the interest rates raising. The euro fell by 0.11% to $ 1.2395 from the two-week high. On Thursday the European Central Bank suggested commercial banks almost interest-

08 - 12
December
weekly
forecast

Euro The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged at the record low the last Thursday, strengthening its position that presupposes that the cost of borrowing cannot be reduced even more. It has led to the euro buying against the US dollar that until then updated other annual lows. According to t

01 - 05
December
weekly
forecast

Euro The last week main events were the Germany labor data and the OPEC oil cartel meeting. The number of unemployed fell by 14 thousand, the November overall unemployment rate was 6.6% compared to 6.7% in October that was revised up to 6.6%, the unemployment decrease by 0.1% has happened. At the

24 - 28
November
weekly
forecast

Euro The Germany PMI manufacturing and services sectors indices were lower than it was predicted data that does not add optimism about the euro perspectives. The euro with the US dollar remains below the 26th figure, risking at any time to resume decline. The eurozone manufacturing and services s

17 - 21
November
weekly
forecast

Euro The Germany consumer price index fell in October by 0.3% (at the forecasts level), the CPI remained unchanged in France. The ECB inflation forecast was disappointing - even the inflation can be less in five years than the target level of 2.0% - only 1.8%. The E18 largest economy demonstrate

10 - 14
November
weekly
forecast

Euro The ECB president confirmed that he expected the lending and bond buying program that would increase the central bank's balance by almost 1 trillion euro. According to the market participants, it corresponds nearly to the amount that Draghi had in mind in his speech during the last monetary

03 - 07
November
weekly
forecast

Euro The unemployed number in Germany reduced more significantly than it had been expected – the unemployed decreased by 22 thousand in October, but not by 2 thousand as it had been expected. However, the unemployment rate remained at the previous level of 6.7%. The EU's largest economic annual i

27 - 31
October
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro rose against the dollar on Friday. It was supported by the Germany’s consumer climate optimistic data, although the US jobless claims released on Thursday, continue to stimulate the dollar demand. The dollar was supported by technical factors, the USA economy news as well as the US

20 - 24
October
weekly
forecast

Euro The a good American economy statistics supported the dollar - the initial jobless claims fell last week by 23 thousand. 264 thousand., while the predicted number was 292 thousand. The September  basic consumer price index has exceeded forecasts, showing 0.8% vs. 0.7% expected. The latest

13 - 17
October
weekly
forecast

 Euro The US positive news has put pressure on the euro and then the ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the bank's management would unanimously support further softening measures if it was necessary and the inflation growth would be ensured from the current low levels. The positive report abo

06 - 10
October
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro sharply fell at the end of the last week. Earlier it was able to strengthen against the US dollar, when it became clear that traders would not receive more detailed information regarding the asset purchase scheme. It is also likely that the euro exchange rate is growing until the E

29 September - 03
October
weekly
forecast

Euro The EUR/USD is under pressure caused by the positive investors’ attitude towards the US dollar and the bleak eurozone economic picture as well as the expectation that European Central Bank will intensify the monetary stimulus. The ECB President Mario Draghi repeated once more that the Centra

22 - 26
September
weekly
forecast

Euro The pair euro/dollar was hit by the weak TLTRO auction results. The lending volume amounted only 82.6 billion euro, while economists expected about 150 billion euro. It again calls into question the ECB effective measures that were taken into account. The profitability differential on the US

15 - 19
September
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro fell by 0.05 percent to 1.2919. The Central European Bank Vice-President Vitor Constancio said the central bank would prefer not to spend billions for buying the government bonds or "quantitative easing", but do not exclude this possibility. Trading recommendations We advise to lo

08 - 12
September
weekly
forecast

Euro   Last week, the euro came under the pressure from significant sales after the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to the record low of 0.05% to 0.15%, thus having surprised many market analysts who did not expect any changes. In addition, the ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank intended

01 - 05
September
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro has completed the second month in a row in the minus due to the worsening situation in Ukraine. The single currency fell to 1.3131. Since early August, the euro has lost 1.6 percent and fell by 2.2 percent in July. The Eurozone leading countries indices did not show a positive eith

25 - 29
August
weekly
forecast

Euro Despite the poor consumer confidence statistics in the euro area the main pair was traded with a slight increase in Yellen’s and Draghi’s speeches anticipation in Jackson Hole. The investors are most interested in whether the Fed reduces QE3 program further or leaves it at this current mini

19 - 23
August
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro little changed against the dollar, trading at near nine-month low, as the latest euro zone economic data keeps pressing the pair while the market expects a series of the United States reports. The market did not react to the negative Germany's GDP. It dropped by 0.2% compared with

11 - 15
August
weekly
forecast

Euro As it was expected and the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. According to Mario Draghi the regulator intends to keep rates low for an extended period of time. The chairman has not given the slightest reason to expect the introduction of additional stimulus measures, but it

04 - 08
August
weekly
forecast

Euro The bullish American rival easily suppresses all the customers' expectations for the euro. The Investors anticipate the positive United States July employment changes data which may be another economic growth confirmation. It is expected that by the end June the employees number was increase

28 July - 01
August
weekly
forecast

Euro The Euro continues the consolidation against the dollar. The euro/dollar traded higher by 0.03%, close to 1.3470. The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for the global economic growth in 2014 from 3.7% in the April report to 3.4%. Trading recommendations In case of breaking

21 - 25
July
weekly
forecast

Euro The Italian trade balance for April showed a decline from 3.89 billion euro to 3.51 billion vs. 4.27 billion. The business sentiment index in Germany ZEW, as we expected, came out with a significant decrease from 33.1 to 29.8 - a trend that lasted six months and worsened since the developmen

14 - 18
July
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro remained under the pressure after the latest data showed that the industrial production in France, Italy and Netherlands fell in May. It renewed the concerns about the forecast for the eurozone economy. Furthermore, the market sentiment fell on the growing fears about the financial

07 - 11
July
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro fell against the U.S. dollar, trading around week low levels after the disappointing report on the German industrial orders, while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi comments continue to exert pressure. ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated the bank forecasts that rates w

30 June - 04
July
weekly
forecast

Euro The U.S. dollar was hit by the GDP report for the 1st quarter which had shown a stronger than analysts had expected the U.S. economy reduction. The GDP decline was 2.9%, the worst figure, starting with the I quarter of 2009., when GDP fell by 5.9% immediately. It should be noted that any we

23 - 27
June
weekly
forecast

Euro The euro fell against the dollar on Friday, but the expected decrease was limited, as the recent statement by the Federal Reserve continues to lower the demand for the dollar. The dollar remains under pressure after the end of its two-day meeting. Last Wednesday the Fed gave no hint of when in

16 - 20
June
weekly
forecast

 Euro The euro was steady against the dollar on Friday as disappointing data on consumer sentiment in the U.S. boosted demand for the dollar, while the concern about the violence in Iraq continues to exert pressure. The euro gained some support after the data release which showed that industrial

09 - 13
June
weekly
forecast

 Euro Nevertheless the ECB decided to take the unprecedented step and lowered the deposit rate to -0.10% negative level. In addition, the key rate was lowered to 0.15%. However, the market reaction was paradoxical. The Eurodollar pair began to grow after a brief decrease that did not fit into any

02 - 06
June
weekly
forecast

 Euro The apparent lack of dynamics and expectations from the ECB which will be held on June 5 is quite likely to lead the pair to the local consolidation top with a tendency to the price growth. The Germany industrial sector will be published on Monday. The labor market data will come out on Tu

26 - 30
May
weekly
forecast

Euro The Monday is a bank holiday in the USA and the UK. The market activity can be low. We expect some important economic data this week, mainly we expect the U.S. gross domestic product release. The Eurozone will publish the European Commission confidence indexes on Wednesday. The ECB Presiden

19 - 23
May
weekly
forecast

 Euro The euro traded slightly lower against the background data on the Eurozone trade balance. Eurozone trade surplus was seasonally adjusted and rose less than was expected in March - up to € 15, 2 billion to € 15 billion in February, while the projected increase to € 17, 3 billion in exports a

12 - 16
May
weekly
forecast

 Euro   The technical picture supports prospects for further pair reduction the course of which still shows a considerable overbought on main timeframes. The pair wave structure demonstrates the completion of the previous cycle and reverses the upward movement of the single European currency to

05 - 09
May
weekly
forecast

Euro News on the Eurozone economy that was published last Friday, carried some positive information. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing countries in the bloc announced that the activity increase in the sector continues to gain strength. The April Markit report showed PMI estim

28 April - 02
May
weekly
forecast

Euro This week will be full with the macroeconomic data. This week main event is the Fed monetary policy statement. The eurozone sentiment data which is expected this week will probably show an improved confidence among both consumers and business representatives. Traditionally we expect Non Farm

21 - 25
April
weekly
forecast

 Euro     From a technical point of view we should expect the EUR/USD growth. The signal to enter the market can become the resistance levels 1.3824, 1.3846 and 1.3867 breakdown as well as the falling to a broken level 1.3700. The main target for the growth is the maximum 1.3905. We do not expe

14 - 18
April
weekly
forecast

 Euro   The rapid growth euro/dollar was supported by the FDS’ minutes. The Fed officials have different opinions on the state of the U.S. labor market, the inflation shall return back to the normal level of 2% in a few years, an unusually bad weather at the beginning of 2014 held back the econo

07 - 11
April
weekly
forecast

 Euro   As we remember last trading week Draghi said that if the inflation in the EU stays for a long period the European regulator may start the program of quantitative softening. The ECB left interest rates at the lowest level of 0.25 % and it does not plan to raise it in the near future. At

31 March - 04
April
weekly
forecast

Euro Preliminary CPI in Spain for March showed the first case of deflation in consumer prices since 2009 (-0.2% y/y). The inflation report in Germany also showed an inflation slowdown. The preliminary index of consumer prices rose in March by 1% y/y vs. 1.2% in February, the expectations were at

24 - 28
March
weekly
forecast

Euro   The Fed decided to reduce the quantitative easing program further. The Fed noted that further reduction program will be focused not only on the U.S. labor market statistics, but also on other important economic indicators. These statements will strengthen the U.S. dollar, which has regain

17 - 21
March
weekly
forecast

Euro Perhaps, the German institute ZEW business environment will be the most interesting event for the current week. They forecast the index decrease which can negatively impact the euro, as it indicates, that Germany has less force to pull the whole monetary unit on its shoulders. Also, the ECB Pr

10 - 14
March
weekly
forecast

 Euro In general, the current week will not be eventful for the Eurozone. Therefore, we can expect that the euro either remains within the current values or leaves it for a correction. We believe that the correction has more chances. The Eurozone problems are still far from being resolved. The fu

03 - 07
March
weekly
forecast

The weather can distract players from Ukraine and China. The weather peak is expected on Tuesday, when the first of the four central banks is planning to organize the meeting - the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce changes in its monetary policy. The Bank of Canada will hold a meeting on Wedne

24 - 28
February
weekly
forecast

 Euro The pair euro/dollar started the new week quietly. The current week is going to be full with releases, still the reaction to them is blurred. Traders are pretty tired of speculation, analysis, plans and predictions. They can use the February last week to prepare to March that will be full o

17 - 21
February
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week Over the last week, main competitors of the US currency consolidated their positions. EUR/USD grew for 0.55%. When speaking as the Fed reserve's Chair on Tuesday 11, Janet Yellen stated about continuation of QE-3 tapering by FOMC, though it may suspend this process if nega

10 - 14
February
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week Since the last week was the first week of the month, it was traditionally eventful. According to its results, EUR/USD pair consolidated for 1.1% as ECB governor was positive in his comments and labor market report in the USA was weak. Mario Drahgi continues to surprise mar

03 - 07
February
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week The last trading week of January was marked by consolidation of US dollar against the most part of its competitors. Core event of the week was Fed's meeting where FOMC members unanimously voted for continuation of QE-3 tapering. Besides, Ben Bernanke for whom it was the la

27 - 31
January
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week According to the results of the previous week, US currency got weaker against its major competitors. Over the first half of the week, euro had been pressured by weak ZEW economic sentiment index. Bears tried to force in 35th figure, but did not succeed in their efforts. Fo

20 - 24
January
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week The last week on the currency market showed consolidation of the US currency against its major competitors. As German GDP data for 2013 was weak and the US inflation report was moderately positive, united European currency got under pressure. Economic growth in one of the l

13 - 17
January
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week The past week on the currency market was very eventful. According to its results, US dollar lost the part of its positions as compared to its main rivals. The last meeting of EuCB did not bring surprises. Monetary policy remained on the same level, regulator stated that it i

06 - 10
January
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week The first New Year week shows up with USD consolidation against its major competitors. Positive reports from the US regarding Consumer Confidence Index and ISM manufacturing index as well as negative Chinese PMI releases for manufacture and service stimulate investors to clo

30 December 2013 - 03 January 2014
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week Christmas week on the Forex market has finished and we can make some conclusions. A quite, modest trades were made with all currency pairs. Investors were rather deliberative when it came to opening trades in the advent of Christmas. When the holiday was over, the market tur

23 - 27
December
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week The past week on the Forex market was very interesting in terms of events. On Wednesday's evening, Fed Reserve declared about start of seizure of QE3 stimulative program. Chief of the US regulator Ben Bernanke stated on the press-conference that indices of the labor market a

16 - 20
December
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week The past week on the Forex market was not very notable in terms of macroeconomic statistics. According to the week's results, united European currency managed to consolidate its positions a little, despite weak European stats. Industrial output decreased by 1.1% over the mo

09 - 13
December
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week The last week was the first trading week of the new month and thus had been very eventful. European currency managed to consolidate strongly against its US associate. EuCB meeting was conducted on December, 5th. As it was expected, European regulator remained discount and de

02 - 06
December
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week Quotes of major currency pairs continued its emergence in the past week as well. According to results of the week, USDX index lost 0,2% and the largest loss was received by US currency against British pound. Euro zone provided mixed statistics. Negative data on German labor

25 - 29
November
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week The past market week was marked by growth of three major currency pairs. Records of the last FRS meeting exerted a pressure on Eur/Usd quotes. FRS stated that on coming December meeting it can consider QE3 cutting. Rumors about a probable introduction of negative rates comin

18 - 22
November
weekly
forecast

Review of the past week The past week, quotes of Eur/Usd, Gpb/Usd and Jpy/Usd pairs grew. We will traditionally start from the review of Eur/Usd. Core event of the week for the united European currency was GDP report for the 3rd quarter published on Thursday, 14th of November. As we expected, the

11 - 15
November
weekly
forecast

Review for the week 4 – 8 of November The past week was eventful for the currency market. EuCB performed as its main news maker: it reduced main interest rate by 0.25%. This event had led to crash of Eur/Usd quotes down to the point of 1.3295. Strong GDP data for the 3rd quarter and changes in No

04 - 08
November
weekly
forecast

Review of the last week The past week for currency market was under the sign of strong American currency. Despite US macroeconomic statistics was generally negative, USD got stronger as compared to its major rivals. Federal Reserve System performed as driving force for its strong upsurge. Monetary

28 October - 01
November
weekly
forecast

Review of the recent week The recent week was certainly very interesting in terms of the Forex market. USA performed as major news maker. Traders and investors wondered if Eur/Usd pair would be able to reach a fresh High 2013. On Tuesday, 22th of October, this intrigue was resolved: due to weak dat

21 - 25
October
weekly
forecast

Review for the week 14.10 – 18.10.2013    The last week, US dollar suffered the most because of the default fear. Though the Congress managed to avoid default, relief rally for dollar took just a few minutes. It is secondary to the behaviour of stocks, which reached one more record High the last w

14 - 18
October
weekly
forecast

US dollar is volatile as negotiations on debt ceiling are coming ... Fundamental Forecast for  USA Dollar: Bullish • Rally of the stock market and the US dollar convey the confidence about the closest time of finding solution regarding state debt ceiling • Threat of default is a b

07 - 11
October
weekly
forecast

Over the last week, market had been waiting for the report on non-farm payrolls. But.. did not wait. Partial shutdown of the US government happened... Therefore, it was even harder to wait until FRS starts scaling down monetary incentives. EUR/USD grew for the week and achieved $ 1.3646 on Thursda

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