Weekly report on S&P500, Brent oil and Gold | 21 Tháng mười một 2014

S&P500

Monthly chart: so, we see that a rather strong pre-reversal combination of ADX/RSI has been formed. As a rule, it means that bulls move up without having trend confirmation. It makes possible the reversal of the index in the area of bottom Bollinger band (2108.8), whereas the middle band supports uptrend now (1792.0)

Weekly chart: the price chart shows first divergences of the oscillator. Bullish momentum has been preserved, which speaks about a coming reversal and preservation of the potential for growth in the direction of 2108.8

Day chart: a more localized resistance is based on 2092.1 (upper bottom Bollinger band). As an alternative to the first scenario (reversal from 2108.8), growth can end in 2092.1

Conclusion: so, downside reversal to 2092.1 is the main plan (with the primary targets at 2000.00 and 1987) Another option is continuation of growth to 2108.8, where bulls can stop their activity and provoke a full reversal down in the middle run (with the target 1792.00)

"Brent" oil

Monthly chart: a significant decline of oil is witnessed. Again we notice that it happens on ADX which is just coming to trend's! It can give a serious promise of the further decline (towards 67.90 and below). Though before it may roll to the middle Bollinger band (101.40), where bullish trap will certainly catch it.

Weekly chart: correction may take place. We confirm the area of a big supply at the price of 101.40. Rollback scenario can be both direct (blue arrow) and may happen through a local reversal at shorter frames (red arrow). In both cases oil can be sold in the area 100.00-101.40.

Day chart: one more sign of correction is the bullish convergence of the oscillator. Support is based in the area 77.02 and can speak for supply wanted by big players.

Conclusion: so, we are expecting touch of 77.02 and start of correction to the area 101.40, from where the oil will fall to new Lows in the middle run. Well-known fundamental factors can force oil to 67.90 and below though.

Gold

Monthly chart: gold found support in the area of bottom Bollinger band (1140.48), where we see some convergence of the oscillator. A significant resistance in the area 1251.45 is also found, but in general rollback is impossible up to 1435 (upper bottom Bollinger band)

Weekly chart:  a quite good pinbar from the bottom Bollinger band plus convergence of the oscillator also speak for growth to 1435.

Day chart: a local resistance in the area 1191.34 can bring gold to the bottom Bollinger band (1121.31) again, from where it can obviously grow to 1251 and 1275.

Conclusion: so, we've got two plans of a local reversal of the gold price. The first one is decline to 1121.31 and start of growth to 1251, 1275 and target of 1435.

Whereas the second plan will move the gold from current levels to the target 1435.

We have to note that realization of such plans won't signalize about a full reversal and gold can continue its growth after correction. That will be considered in the following review.