Weekly Review. S& P500, oil, gold | 11 Tháng mười một 2016

S&P500

Monthly: a predictable start of drop on a bearish signal, which we discussed last week (inside bearish bar). Support from the middle Bollinger band (2068.2) is very close, but there is a more substantial potential - down to 1934.7 (lower Bollinger band).

Weekly: at this local frame, the index continues to stay within the flat inside Bollinger envelopes (2062.8-2206.9), with the price rotating around the middle band (2145.2) as the main trend.

Daily: southern trend distribution. ADX is very active and aggressive, and therefore, completion of 2068.2 is a matter of practical solutions.

The only question is the depth, to which the price can get further. The price is oversold and it already has got enought number of bars outside the Bollinger envelopes required for correction.

Expectations: drop to 2062.8-2068.2 followed by an upward correction.

solutions:

1. Buy to 2062.8-2068.2

2. Sell from 2062.8 (providing there are clear signals of beginning of the correction).

"Brent"

Monthly: ADX indicators that did not meet bullish expectations have justified themselves after the move to the upper Bollinger envelope. Now the price is consolidating around the middle band (49 dollars per barrel).

Weekly: very weak status of ADX, which can lead to flat inside the horizontal corridor 43.42-53.25 (the band of Bollinger envelopes)

Daily: very aggressive trend condition of ADX indicates that the price can drop to 43.42, so support 45.42 does not look reliable. In the near future, we are almost sure to get the upward correction, cause the price is oversold and there is already the fifth bar in a row outside of Bollinger envelopes (which is a very strong corrective signal)..

The main scenario - drop to 43.42 followed by start of an intensive upward correction.

The alternative scenario - touch of 45.42 and start of an upward correction.

solutions:

1. Sell to support lines 45.42 and 43.42.

2. Look for upward entries around 45.42 and 43.42.

Gold

Monthly: Corrective ADX indicates that gold is not going to break the upper Bollinger band (1368.58) and the price is to take a mid-term decline to ​​1205.67 (middle Bollinger band).

Weekly: weak ADX anticipates resistance around the middle and upper Bollinger bands (1313.33, 1368.58). Rising structure is maintained, but we have no proofs that new highs are going to be reached.

Daily: at this local frame, the structure is purely top-down. The price is passing the upward correction. If bears maintain such structure, they need to protect its last top (1343.42). But trend status of ADX/RSI in favor of buyers is intriguing. Perhaps, gold will be impacted by speculations around US presidential elections and traders will choose this tool as safe one again. It will boost the price.

The main scenario - surge to 1343.42 followed by a downward start to 1269.53

The alternative scenario - a breakthrough to 1343.42, overall break of the local descending structure and then growth to 1368.58.

solutions:

1. Buy to 1340.00 (and, possibly, to 1368.58 for bulls).

2. If the main scenario proves to be true, the sale in the area of 1343.42.