Every cycle is different | 19 Tháng Năm 2023

#SP500:

Earnings season is coming to a close as 85% of S&P 500 companies have now reported results. So far, 79% of companies have beaten consensus EPS expectations, which is above the one-year average of 73% and the five-year average of 77%. Last month’s consumer inflation rate increased month-over-month, however the year-over-year annual rate declined to its lowest level since mid-2021. The Consumer Price Index peaked almost a year ago now in June 2022. Historically, CPI peaks tend to come around the start of a recession on average. Clearly that wasn’t the case this time.

Trading recommendation: buy 4100 and take profit 4187.

XAUUSD:

The Federal Reserve sees signs that it can avoid triggering a recession in the US even as it has raised interest rates aggressively to put the brakes on inflation. Policymakers raised rates by a quarter percentage point at a meeting earlier this month, bringing their benchmark to a target range of 5% to 5.25% and signaling they may be ready to pause their tightening cycle. Prices climbed 4.9% from a year earlier in April, consumer price index data released last Wednesday showed, the first sub-5% reading in two years. This is a negative signal for the dollar and a positive signal for precious metals.

Trading recommendation: buy 2001 and take profit 2030.

#WTI:

The U.S. oil and natural gas rig count fell this week to its lowest in nearly a year, as gas rigs slumped by the most in a week since February 2016, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed fresh report. U.S. oil rigs fell by two to 586 last week, their lowest since June 2022, while gas rigs plunged by 16 to 141, their lowest April last year. An OPEC report said the producer group expects July-December demand for its own crude to be 90,000 barrels per day higher than previously projected. The oil market drew some support from the forecast emerging supply deficit for the second half of the year.

Trading recommendation: buy 68.50 and take profit 75.00.