Fed wins its fight against inflation?! | 14 Tháng Mười 2022

#SP500:

US equity earnings are behaving similarly to the run-up to previous recessions, tallying with multiple leading indicators showing the US is on track for an economic slump. Unfortunately, earnings, and earnings expectations, by themselves won’t help you gauge whether a recession is on the way, as both tend to lag the cycle. Ten-year yields approached 3.9% amid their 10th consecutive weekly rise. The swap contract for the November Fed meeting priced in nearly 75 basis points of tightening. Market-implied expectations for where the rate will peak also increased, with the derivative contract for the March gathering trading around 4.66%. The current range for the benchmark rate stands between 3% and 3.25%.

Trading recommendation: sell 3722 and take profit 3600.

XAUUSD:

Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said rates need to rise to around 4.5% over time, but the pace and ultimate peak of the tightening campaign will hinge on how the economy performs. Several officials, in separate remarks this week, delivered a resolutely hawkish message that price pressures remain elevated and they won’t be deterred from raising rates by volatility in financial markets. All eyes will now be on this week’s US inflation data after a hotter-than-expected reading in August tempered hopes of a nascent slowdown. Separately, minutes from the Fed’s September meeting will give clues into the central bank’s tolerance for economic pain. Amid fears of a looming recession, investors poured the most money into cash since April 2020.

Trading recommendation: sell 1705 and take profit 1665.

#WTI:

Oil output target cuts agreed by OPEC+ producers will leave them more supply to tap in the event of any crises, OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais told. OPEC+, which includes the 13 members of OPEC and 10 allies led by Russia, agreed to lower their output target by 2 million barrels per day. OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia said the move was necessary to respond to rising interest rates in the West and a weaker global economy. The decision was criticised by the United States. U.S. President Joe Biden also faces mid-term elections next month in which high energy prices are a hot topic.

Trading recommendation: buy 89.35 and take profit 92.50