08 January 2021, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
Inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro was unchanged at minus 0.3% in December, Eurostat data. The inflation reading could be the last negative figure in the current cycle as a temporary German value added tax cut expired at the end of 2020 and crude oil prices are up around 45% since the start of November. The ECB expects inflation to rise to 0.3% in the first quarter, then to 1.5% by the fourth quarter as activity restarts and weak year earlier figures get knocked out from base figures. Still, inflation, which has undershot the ECB's nearly 2% target since 2013, is likely to dip again next year and will not approach the bank's objective for years to come as the recover from the pandemic will be protracted.
Investment idea: Sell 1.2285 and take profit 1.2225.
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