Weekly review of three pairs | 02 May 2014

 EUR/USD

Monthly chart: the situation here is ambiguous. The pair seems to be located in the area of bearish pinbar and at the same time it is based in ascending flow from Bollinger envelopes (and an active ADX). Upper Bollinger band (1.4082) is the resistance. If it is broken, Northern determination becomes significant with middle-term target as of 1.4964.  If sellers are able to force rolldown, the middle line (1.3269) will be a magnet.

Weekly chart: an even better localized resistance 1.3932 and two support points: 1.3718 ( middle line) and 1.3504 (an ascending bottom line). The higher support will work for bulls, the better Northern signal is identified.

Day chart: here the pair entered a flat range 1.3703-1.3892. There is a probability that the week will take place inside this corridor, because ADX is inactive.

Conclusion: main scenario is a flat trading within range 1.3703-1.3892. Another option is growth to 1.4082 through 1.3932. GBP/USD Monthly chart: so, here we see a considerable Northern potential from ADX. Besides, bulls aggressively break march Inside Bar. In front there is a strong pivot 1.7059, and if it is broken, we will get growth to 1.9383 (!). 

Weekly chart: support 1.6544 ( middle Bollinger band), resistance is 1.6857 (upper). Between these two levels a “spring” will be created which will supply one or another side with accumulated potential. Meanwhile, buyers have an advantage.

Day chart: a crucial supportive point is based at 1.6717 ( middle Bollinger band). Its annihilation can lead to formation of reversal pattern Over&Under with the course shown by purple arrow. Up until that time, we will rely upon a trend's scenario with bounce from 1.6717 and growth to 1.6857 and 1.7059.

Conclusion: a main scenario is the growth 1.7059 through a possible touch of support 1.6717. Another option is the break of 1.6717, decline to 1.6514 and then a start of a roll upwards to the point of middle-term sales based at 1.68. 

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: so, resistance from the middle Bollinger band (0.9693) has almost been achieved. Upswing has been almost completely formed which allows to start a new wave down. Also bears have the opportunity to close month by pinbar. Thus, main middle-term expectations include start of movement down to 0.8402 ( bottom Bollinger band)

Weekly chart: Inside Bar starts to work in the downwards direction, movement can be expected at least to the middle one (0.9030) with the potential to the bottom - 0.8625. We remember that meantime reversal is confirmed by a significant convergence, thus, it is most likely that after touching specified supportive points the pair will take growth to 0.9693.

Day chart: as we see, decline to 0.9030 will lead to formation of a reversal local Over&Under (purple arrow) with the potential for decline to 1.87. If buyers can push the price from the level 0.9277 ( middle Bollinger band), a full potential for growth to 0.9693 will appear.

Conclusion: main scenario is the pair's decline to 0.9030, whereupon there will be a start of rollback to 0.93, where a middle-term sales point for the target 0.87 is located. Another option is the upward bounce from 0.9277 with the point 0.9693 as target.