Weekly forecast on three pairs | 24 January 2014

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: Euro moves within bottom envelope around medium Bollinger band (1.3105), from where the pair supposedly will dash to attach upper band. Alternatively, break of support 1.31 and decline to (in the middle run) to bottom band (1.2339)

Weekly chart: right now the pair is based on support from medium Bollinger band (1.3533) which was approached by euro with floating ADX, which increases the probability of bounce up. Also, the pair can obtain support just below on ascending bottom line (area 1.33). We will note that such strong decline as decline to 1.3104 will form O&U pattern with further outlook for South.

Daily chart: here we can note serious prerequisites to break 1.3533 and leave to 33, to the support (with the target of 1.3104).

Conclusion: so, main expectations are the plans with decline to 1.3104. That can be reached with both break of 1.3533 and touch of area 1.33, turbulence in it and continuation of movement to 1.3104. The plan with an abrupt dropdown with smooth break of is also probable 1.33 (less probable though). Alternatively, there will be a bounce up directly from present levels either after touching 1.33, with determination to 1.40.

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: the situation is similar to Eur/Usd. Envelopes speak for continuation of growth, but the pair inclines to correction towards medium band (1.5818).

Weekly chart: three almost equivalent supports: 1.61, 1.5818 and 1.5552. Each of them can provide a rather intense dash upwards.

Daily chart: flat trades within the range of 1.6267-1.6612. The probability of trend's continuation within this corridor is high.

Conclusion: main plan is the flat movement within the range 1.6267-1.6612. Alternatively, one of three supports - 1.61, 1.5818, 1.5551 – can provide splash of volatility. Such option is only possible upon break of flat area's support (1.6267).

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: a strong Southern front with an obvious target for 0.8009 continues.

Weekly chart: signs of bullish convergence are significant. Strong trends tend to ignore trends but we must have guides for possible cancel of Southern tendency. Break of Bollinger medium band could be such a benchmark (0.9188, red arrow). As for the rest, we have the same expectation regarding the pair's decline (following to a possible correction).

Daily chart: the situation is similar. ADX is active speaking for 50/50 scenario with an advantage of main tendency. That is to say, markets either move for a direct breakthrough and leave to 0.88, or Bollinger medium band will be broken upwards (0.8911) and bullish dynamics will occur.

Conclusion: main plan is decline from present levels to the target of 0.80. Alternatively, the pair will go through a local reversal. In this case, main resistance points 0.8911 and 0.9188 will be broken by turn.