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GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold weekly review

GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold weekly review | 11 September 2015

Gold Weekly Review:
 
During the previous week, Gold traded with a bearish Bias for the better parts of last week, the pair however could not close below the 1109.62 key level but is currently trading just above it. As long as the pair trades above this level, short positions are recommended. It is anticipated however that, during this week, Gold will continue short down to the 1052.64 key level. Thus during this week, traders trading this commodity should look to take profit at the level 1050.64.

By 11th September 2015, gold will have broken below the lower trend line completing the channel, otherwise, long positions are recommended should it move upwards and close above the resistance trend line.  As a caution, before buying gold above this resistance  trend line, see to it that,  gold is clearly bouncing above it.  If the latter is the case, then we expect gold to move further ahead and bounce off from 38.2% fib level. Otherwise it may break downwards and even lower to 1130.53.
 

Traders trading Gold should observe closely the US dollar index. Gold and the US dollar Index have had a moderate positive correlation for the past week, this correlation is expected to continue. Thus, before you buy Gold at above the Resistance trend line, see to it that, at the same time gold is giving a buy signal above this level, US dollar index is also giving a buy signal. 

 

USD/JPY Weekly Review:
 
During the previous week, USD/JPY traded with a Bearish Bias for the better part of last week, the pair traded with lower  lows but failed to reach a key support level 116.19 and is is currently trading below the 38.2% fib level. as long as the pair trades below this fib level, short positions are recommended. Traders trading this pair this week should sell but only up to the level 118.45 and the next level at 116.19. Any movements below this level may signal further movements below. 
 

Traders trading this pair should also observe closely other pairs such as NZD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/USD,  AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY and The US Dollar Index. The mentioned pairs and US dollar index, had a strong positive correlation of up to +0.96 with USD/JPY, but had a strong negative correlation with EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD and USD/CAD. Thus, only buy USD/JPY if more than half of the positively correlated pairs are showing the same signals and half of the negatively correlated pairs are showing an opposite signal (sell).
 

Traders selling this pair should sell, but up to 116.19, any movements below this level will signal further movements upwards.

 

GBP/USD weekly Review:

During the past week, GBP/USD  traded bearish for the better part of the week. The pair went down and even crossed and closed below a key support area 1.5337 therefore aborting the anticipated double bottom. The pair went down and is currently trading below the 50.0% fib level, as long as the pair trades below this level, short positions are encouraged but only up to the 61.8% fib level. Any movements below this level will signal further movements below. Basically, we expect a bounce for a buy signal from the 1.5086 key level.
 

Traders trading this pair should also observe closely other pairs such as AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD,EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY for Positive correlation trading. The mentioned pairs have a very strong positive correlation of up to +1 with GBP/USD but are strongly negatively correlated with other pairs such EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. Thus, before buying GBP at 1.5157, ensure that more than half of the above pairs are all giving a clear buy signals, on the other hand, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF should be giving clear sell signals
 

Traders should look to buy this pair at 1.5086 and sell at 1.5249. Any movements above the 61.8% fib level will signal further movements below up to the 100.0% fib level. However, should price close above 1.5249, further long positions are recommended.

 

Bob Stan
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