Forecast for the week from September 18th through September 22th:
Sell gold for two reasons. First of all, risk assets demand still persists, which traditionally puts pressure on gold as the safest asset. Second of all, on September 20th USA Fed will probably announce that it's shrinking its balance sheet. That will support US dollar. Greenback strengthening is likely to affect negatively gold rates, as gold is quoted in American currency. Is large-scale selling of XAU/USD likely to happen? I don't think so because inflation expectations in G-7 economies are growing, which is a positive sign for gold. Trading signals: Sell 1321/1330 and take profit 1310.
This week we have rather negative background. Over the last two weeks USA oil inventories increased by 10.46 million barrels determining the end of the season decline. In September and October rapid growth of inventories is expected, for this reason oil rates will be under pressure. Oil production in Texas is now recovering from hurricanes, which poses additional risk to oil quotes. According to CFTC, speculators are buying fewer oil futures, that indicates downtrend development. Trading signals: Sell 55,60/56,80 and take profit 53,37.
First half of the week may see rates growth as a result of preserving risk appetite. Volatility Index is declining, that indicates further shares demand. According to CFTC, speculators increased net positions volume for S&P500 futures purchasing by 30.1 thousand contracts, which also confirms investors' interest in this instrument. At Fed meeting, that will be held on Wednesday evening, I expect long positions profit-taking and quotes drop. The Central Bank of USA will probably announce the date of Fed balance sheet shrinking, which will cause liquidity decrease in bank system and have negative impact on stock market. Trading signals: Buy 2500/2488 and take profit 2516.