The euro has fallen against the dollar. The new hopes that the US may increase the interest rates while the central bank holds the euro area quantitative easing program again prompted the market to give preference to the dollar. The fact that Greece made in time all the loan repayments to the International Monetary Fund (460 million euro) did not support the euro as the payment implementation was is in doubt.
The week employment data leveled disappointment from the March labor report. Last Thursday the US Labor Department reported that the initial jobless claims number rose up by 14 thousand to 281 thousand that fact was almost within projections as expected 280 thousand and pointed out to the positive result, indicating the continued improvement in the labor market.
Be advised to short with the first target of 1.0480-1.0500 within the euro. If the target is overcome the new one for shorts will be the level of 1.0270-1.0290.
The UK trade balance proved to be a failure – the trade deficit increased from -8.4 billion pounds to -10.3 billion in February. As we expected, investors reacted violently to the jobless claims growth – they amounted to 281 thousand against 268 thousand a week earlier. At the end of the day the pound came under the dual pressure by 152 points.
The UK GDP forecast from NIESR for March will soon come out.
We expect a delay in the range of 1.4700-1.4720 within the British pound on the UK positive data, but if they disappoint traders we will wait for the price to 1.4520-1.4540 in the short term.
We recommend shorting to 1.4520-1.4540. The level of 1.4320-1.4340 is the second target.
The Japanese stock market continues to grow. The Nikkei 225 index reached the record top of 20,000 points. The reason was the US Dow Jones increase by 0.31%. According to the Ministry of Finance, Japanese stocks foreign investments rose by 1.035 trillion yen for the last week. Last Friday the dollar rose against the major currencies basket as demand for the dollar is supported with hopes that the United States will raise interest rates in the middle of the year.
We expect a growth towards 120.20-120.40. When the first target is overcome be advise to long to 122.20-122.40.