This week will be full with the macroeconomic data. This week main event is the Fed monetary policy statement. The eurozone sentiment data which is expected this week will probably show an improved confidence among both consumers and business representatives. Traditionally we expect Non Farm Payrolls. If we receive significant changes that could impact the pair.
However, from the technical point of view all this week important events should support the EUR/USD growth. Still we can talk about the current rising trend changing to a falling one only if the pair breaks the strong support at 1.3783.
The UK retail sales supported the pound growth, still this year maximum 1.6840 has not been broken. Experts predicted retail sales deterioration, still the data were better than previous indicators showed. Moreover, as stated by British retailers, sales growth will increase in the next month. However, the UK GDP is the event that will affect the medium term on the pound. According to the forecast the data should support the further growth.
We can buy if the pair consolidates at 1.6830. The resistance break could mean a continued growth in the medium and long term.
We can sell the pair after the price breaking 1.6780.
The pair bounced from 101.20 support level the previous trading week. Keep in mind that the downward movement is only supported by the weak U.S. data that came out on the previous trading week. The lack of investors' interest to invest in the dollar amid the recent Ukraine events puts downward pressure on the pair. From a technical point of view we see the absence of direct current divergence which may affect the dollar/yen this trading week.
The target for the growth is the level 104.15.
We will sell if the pair consolidates under 102.30, the pair will go to 101.20 in this case.