The pair euro/dollar started the new week quietly. The current week is going to be full with releases, still the reaction to them is blurred. Traders are pretty tired of speculation, analysis, plans and predictions. They can use the February last week to prepare to March that will be full of events. There is going to be the ECB meeting where they will decide the Q3 program future and the USA labor market reports and the next FED meeting.
The price is in the expanding triangle, it is hard to say what are the price’s priorities! We can just assume that all this is a correction forming from a minimum 1.2757. The price can move right now either up or down.
UK economic calendar is not plagued by a large number of significant reports. On Wednesday, February 26 there will be published the GDP second estimate for the 4th quarter. There were significant improvements in the economy in last year December - employment growth, private consumption and net exports, which may cause a revision indicator of economic growth in the direction of improvement to the level of 0.8 %. In this case, we can expect a demand for the British currency versus the U.S. dollar.
Moderately negative statistics from the United States is also a positive factor for the pair and we can expect a moderate growth.
We expect the pair to continue falling. The target levels are 1.6547, 1.65; 1.6466, 1.6440, 1.64.
However, we cannot exclude a "bulls" attempt to resume the growth, if the GDP key data will exceed market expectations. This case, the pair may test the level 1.6822.
The yen remains under the pressure after the Bank of Japan voted to extend the scheme of bank lending to increase the monetary stimulus program effectiveness.
This week, traders will wait for the USA Durable Goods Orders publication and the consumer confidence index, while retail sales, inflation and industrial production data will be published in Japan.
The pair reached 102.82, the highest level since January 31, and the last time was up 0.22 %, at around 102.49. The pair completed week with growth by 0.41 %.
Perhaps, the pair will find support at 101.90 and resistance at 103.30 to continue its growth.
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