Forecast for week 28 - 31 of December:
In the last week of 2015, the yellow metal is expected to show a moderate growth of quotations. Correction of oil boosted growth of return of 10-years' government bonds in the G-7 countries, which is a positive factor for gold. Stabilization of the oil market contributes to growth of inflation expectations. Bulls lack this factor very much now. However, oil futures are still at very low levels and under current conditions it is quite early to speak about changes in inflation expectations in the largest economies of the world. It is impossible to ignore weakening of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market. Since the price of gold is denominated in US dollars, drop of quotations of the US currency is a bullish factor for the yellow metal. Nevertheless, in terms of the macroeconomic factors, XAU/USD is still at very high levels, and in this regard, it is now extremely difficult to expect a significant increase of the price. This week we shall open Buy positions with XAU/USD on growth of quotations to 1073/1068 and take profit at 1081.
XPT/USD and XPD/USD:
This week we should open long positions with the platinum group of metals for two reasons. First, in the fourth quarter, the United States, China and the Euro zone show growth of car production, which is positively taken by investors. The Euro zone is a major consumer of the platinum-made car catalysts, whereas the United States and China use palladium car catalysts. We can not ignore that a strong labor market in the United States means continuation of positive trend in early 2016. Growth in real income in the current year boosted sales of houses and cars. Americans are ready to make expensive purchases, which indicates their confidence in the future. Second, as we noted earlier, this week we expect a smooth decrease in quotations of the US currency (USDX), which will also have a positively effect for the platinum group metals. Now investors are positive towards the entire range of industrial metals cause quotations of copper, aluminum, zinc are rising. This week we shall open Buy positions with XPT/USD on drop of quotations to 876/867 and take profit at 889 as well as open Buy positions with XPD/USD on drop of quotations to 555/550 and take profit at 570.
The new trading week in the US stock market will be short again. Many investors do not enter the market because of Christmas holidays. In this context, low liquidity is expected to lead to flat trends for the two reasons. On the one hand, continuation of correction in the oil market will push up the quotations of commodity securities that will have a positive impact for S&P500 index. The last week, the energy sector crowned growth (+ 4.68%), which made it possible to finish the week with a steady growth. On the other hand, decline of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market will support demand in so called safe assets (euro, Japanese yen and gold), which may induce investors to lock Long positions in profit and cause a rollback of the index of "thick market".This week we shall expect flat within the range of 2025-2085.
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