The bullish rally in the oil market! | 16 July 2021

#WTI:

U.S. petroleum inventories have fallen below the pre-pandemic five-year average with consumption accelerating but crude producers slow to respond to rising prices. Total stocks of crude and refined products outside the strategic petroleum reserve fell by 10 million barrels last week and are now down by 188 million barrels compared with the same point a year ago. Inventories are 12 million barrels or 1% below the pre-pandemic five-year average for 2015-2019, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The crude shortage has become especially acute around the delivery point for the NYMEX WTI contract at Cushing, Oklahoma, where crude stocks are 21% below the five-year average for 2016-2020. This is a bullish signal for the oil market!

Trading recommendation: Buy 73.94 and take profit 75.70.

#SP500:

Investors are looking to U.S. companies' upcoming quarterly results and forecasts about the recovery in the second half of 2021. A massive jump in second quarter earnings is expected to mark a peak for U.S. earnings growth and the recovery from last year's pandemic-induced profit collapse. S&P 500 earnings are estimated to have surged 65.8% from a year earlier, according to Wall Street investment banks. Starting Tuesday, earnings reports are due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other big banks, kicking off the quarterly results season. They could give early clues on the economy and stocks tied to growth. Most big U.S. banks are expected to report a big rebound in quarterly profits.

Trading recommendation: Buy 4350 and take profit 4400.

XAUUSD:

The FOMC shifted towards a post-pandemic view of the world, dropping a longstanding reference to the coronavirus as a constraint on the economy. The minutes did little to clarify when the Fed will begin to change the monthly bond purchases and near-zero interest rates it put in place in the spring of 2020 to support the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic and associated recession. Long-term Treasury yields are near five-month lows. The central bank officials believed "substantial further progress" on the economic recovery had not yet been met. This is a good signal for the gold.

Trading recommendation: buy 1790 and take profit 1815.