The lockdown measures in most major OECD | 22 January 2021

#WTI:

The investors turned more positive about an economic rebound and a rapid recovery of oil demand following the deployment of COVID-19 vaccines in several regions, while more countries were approving different vaccines. The market consolidated further amid the brightening global oil market balance outlook after Saudi Arabia to voluntarily adjust their production. The intervention by the Federal Reserve resulted in the US dollar depreciating against its major counterparts. In the past, a gradually weakening US dollar has also been supportive to oil prices and oil producing exporters.

Trading recommendation: Buy 51.00 and take profit 52.50.

#SP500:

While a strong U.S. economic recovery in 2021 remains very likely, the depth and magnitude of this year’s rebound remains uncertain. Ongoing pandemic-related challenges are forecast to dampen the recovery, but are considered temporary, especially as distribution of vaccines, along with other pandemic-related improvements, are forecast to gain traction. Widely available rapid-testing facilities will play an important role in addition to the vaccines. Therefore, the recovery is forecast to gain steam towards the end of 2Q21. Surplus reserves of American commercial banks have increased by $115.6 billion over the past week, which allows bankers to increase the volume of speculation in the stock market.

Trading recommendation: Buy 3740 and take profit 3795.

XAUUSD:

While 1Q21 developments have been dented so far by rising COVID-19 infections and additional lockdown measures in most major OECD economies, the situation in emerging economies seems to have slightly improved lately. Current pandemic-related challenges are considered to be temporary, as the distribution of a vaccine, along with other pandemic-related improvements, is forecast to gain traction. Global purchasing managers’ indices in December supported the view of a continuation in the global recovery, albeit with a somewhat softening dynamic. This is a negative signal for gold!

Trading recommendation: Sell 1837 and take profit 1817.