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The dollar wants a revenge

14 August 2015, EUR/USD

On Thursday, the US currency was able to compensate some of the lost positions - the dollar basket USDX index finished trading day at 96.50. The pair EUR/USD lost 0.2% to the end of the day by fixed profit of long-term positions after 6-days upward trend. The pair GBP/USD lost only 0.05% to the end of the day by the sales on the “black gold” marke;. The British currency is traditionally sensitive to the Brent oil price changes. The pair USD/JPY gained 0.17% to the end of the day by the correction on the world markets, which put pressure on the safe yen.

The events we should pay attention to today:

12.00 Msc. The Eurozone: Preliminary the GDP changes data for the 2nd quarter (the previous is 0.4%, the forecast is 0.4%).

15.30 Msc. The USA: the producers’ price index for July (the previous is 0.4%, the forecast is 0.1%). 16.15 Msc. The USA: the industrial production value changes for July (the previous is 0.3%, the forecast is 0.3%).

17.00 Msc.The USA: the consumer climate index from the University of Michigan in August (the previous is 93.1, the forecast is 93.5).


In the first half of the day we should pay attention to the publication of GDP data for the Eurozone for the second quarter. During the second quarter in the Old World the moderate economic growth was seen, as evidenced by the key macroeconomic indicators. The unemployment rate declined only 0.1%, industrial production value fell slightly. A significant increase in consumer spendings during the analyzed period was not also observed. The low rate of the single European currency continued to have a positive influence on the trade balance structure. The export growth usually creates an increased multiplier effect in the economy which smooths out the negative trends. So, we can expect the output of data within the median forecast - we can not expect a strong release today. It is necessary to note that the market “has laid” moderately positive release in quotes (the EUR/USD pair was settled the past few days), and in regard this the reaction to this event will be smooth. It is impossible to ignore the debt market dynamics: in the past two days the expanding of income differential of the US and German government obligations, which is a positive factor for the US currency. The Brent recently finished the trades lower the level 50$/barrel, that will support the dollar as the material cost is dominated by the American currency. Against this background, during the day the Sell position should be opened on the growth of quotations to 1.1155/1.1190, and fix the profit at the level of 1.1095 . Today, you can mark the following levels: the support levels 1.1130 - 1.1096 and the resistance levels: 1.1216 -1.1096.

The dollar wants a revenge


In the first half of the day the important macroeconomic statistics is expected and in this regard it is worth to pay attention to the dynamics of the debt and goods markets. Recently the income differential of on 10-year the US and the UK government obligations reached the maximum level in the current trading week, which is bearish factor for the British currency. It should also be noted that the last trading day was marked by a wave of sales of materials assets that will support the US currency, as the cost of materials is denominated by the dollar. In US trading session the output of the positive data on industrial production in the US for July can be expected. The factory orders growth, together with an increase in the number of employees in the manufacturing sector of the economy indicates the strength of the manufacturing sector of the economy. Against this background, we can expect the demand for the US currency. Against this background, it is worth to open the sell positions when the quotation growth is in the area 1.5625/1.5645 and fix the profit at 1.5575. It is necessary to mark the following levels for the pound/dollar pair: the support levels: 1.5592 - 1.5551 and the resistance levels: 1.5625-1.5673.

The dollar wants a revenge


During the day, we should expect the domination of bullish climate. Firstly, the income spread of 10-year of The US and Japan governmental obligations is expanding, which is bullish factor for the dollar, as it increases the attractiveness of US assets for institutional investors. Secondly, the downward trend in gold makes the capital flow to the world's leading stock exchanges, forcing market participants to build up “carry trade” operations,by the Japanese yen as a funding currency. In this regard, the yen will be under pressure, which is positive for the US dollar. Thirdly, the published statistics from Japan of orders for cars and equipment indicates the continuation of the negative trend in the manufacturing sector, which in recent years makes the Japanese currency weak. Fourthly, as noted earlier, we can expect today for the output of the positive industrial production data in the US. This indicator is best to evaluate the current business-cycle and the growth rate will reflect the strength of the US economy. And this factor is extremely important now because the currency market is living with the expectations of the first rate hike of the US Federal Reserve and the volume growth of industrial production has always positively accepted by investors. Against this background, during the day it worth to open the buy positions at the quotations decline to 124.20/123.95 and fix the profit at 124.75. It is necessary to mark the following levels: the support levels: 124.12 - 123.74 and the resistance levels: 124.45 - 125.06.

The dollar wants a revenge

Alexander Goryachev
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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