12 August 2015, EUR/USD
On Tuesday we could see the multidirectional tend on the currency market. The pair EUR/USD gained 0,1% to the end day despite the negative release at business climate of Germany from ZEW institute. The pair GBP/USD was declining during the day, reacting to the sales on the “black gold” market. The currency of the United Kingdom is traditionally sensitive to the Brent oil price changes. The pair USD/JPY at the end day gained 0.38%. The sales on the goods market support the American currency demand as the materials price is denominated in dollars.
The events we should pay attention today:
11.30 Msc. Great Britain: the unemployment rate for July (the previous of 5.6%; the forecast is 5.6%).
11.30 Msc. Great Britain: The level of average earnings changes for June (the previous of 3.2% 3 m/y, the forecast is 2.8% 3m/y).
12.00 Msc. The Eurozone: the industrial production for June (the previous of -0.4% m/m, the forecast is -0.1% m / m).
Today is not rich in important macroeconomic statistics. It is, perhaps, worth to mark the release of the Eurozone industrial production for June. It is this indicator allows to follow the dynamics of the business cycle best of all. It is worth mentioning that during the second quarter of this year, the PMI index of industrial sphere demonstrates the positive trend,what indicates the data output is a bit better than the consensus-forecast. A similar trend is confirmed by the growth in exports to the countries of the Old World. By the end of May the index was dropped at 0.4% and now the increase the volume of industrial production is possible. The positive report will provide some support for the single European currency. It should also be noted that the pair EUR/USD has ignored the weak data from the institute ZEW, which indicates the existence of strong buyers in this currency pair, which come on the market not for one day. On the debt market in the first days of the week there is a flat: the profitability of German 10-year government obligations slightly changed in relation to their counterparts from the US and the UK. We can not ignore the trends on the "black gold" market. At the end of the last day the Brent oil lost 2.2%, and the contract for WTI lost 3.7%, that will support the US currency, as the materials price is denominated in dollars. Within this we expect for flat in the corridor 1.1015 -1.1135 during the day. For today we can mark the following levels: support levels 1.1017 - 1.0958 and resistance levels: 1.1051 -1.1096.
Today, all the attention of market participants will be focused on the publication of data on the UK labor market. Here we are interested in two indicators: the unemployment rate and the size of average earnings.The index of applications of the unemployed for employment indicates that you should not expect any changes in the unemployment rate. But the release of the average earnings can be a little better than the median forecasts within the revision of the Bank of England forecast for the economic growth in general and wages in particular. Within this the British currency will be in some demand. However, the strengthening "cable" will be prevent by the oil that on the eve got the the wave of strong sales. OPEC raised its forecast for oil production in countries out of the cartel. The main players of the "black gold" market do not worry about low oil prices yet, and they continue to gradually increase the production of hydrocarbons. This is a negative factor as for oil quotations, so for the British currency, asa about 10% of UK GDP falls in the energy sector. Within this we expect the flat in the corridor 1.5530 -1.5640. It is necessary to mark following levels at the pair pound/dollar: the support level: 1.5551 - 1.5497 and the resistance level: 1.5592 – 1.5625.
Japan and the United States will not please traders today by the publication of interesting macroeconomic statistics and, in this regard, it is worth to pay attention to the dynamics of the debt and equity markets.On the debt market we see the moderate growth of profitability of the Japanese 10-year government obligations, which will provide some support for "bears". But the stock market is sending the clear "bearish signal".The sales at the world's leading stock markets on the eve indicate the closing of “carry trade” transactions, which will contribute to the demand for the Japanese yen as the funding currency. The width indicator of American and Japanese stocks market indicates that the downward trend will continue today and in this regard, more attentive to look at the sales of the pair USD/JPY.However, given the low oil prices we should not expect a significant weakening of the US currency. Within during the day the sell positions should be opened on the growth of quotations to 125.05 / 125.25, and take profits at the level of 124.51. It is necessary to mark the following levels: the support levels 125.06 – 124.45 and the resistance levels: 125.75 – 126.21.