14 April 2015, EUR/USD
The euro continued to decline against the dollar, but it slightly grew at the end of the day. It seems that the jobless claims data which appeared last week caught the "euro bulls" in a rather difficult situation and also after the US labor report that noted the job market weakness in March. In addition, it is likely the Greece financial problems influence.
The ECB meeting will be in the center of our attention this week where they will decide the block monetary policy future.
The pair has continued to decline since last Monday. Last week the pair fell, reaching nearly the month low and closed slightly below 1.0600. At the yesterday trades the pair continued to decline and a corrected at the end the trades.
The support levels are 1.0480-1.0500, and the resistance levels are 1.0630-1.0650.
MACD is in a negative territory.
We expect the pair current decrease continuation and the euro corrective rebound into the price zone of 1.0630 - 1.0650 and then the euro increase completion to the target levels of 1.0770-1.0790.
The British pound has found a support and corrected. Earlier the pair continued its decline against the dollar having fallen to the new local lows. The industrial production data noted a lack of consistent results - manufacturing industry noted increase by 0.4% m/m in February after -0.6% m/m in January. In addition, the market continues to take into account the UK government change after the elections that scheduled for the next month. The UK this week news shall show the two important pieces of information - the inflation and the employment data.
The pair has been declining since Wednesday. The pair lost more than 200 points on Thursday and Friday, showing new lows during the session below 1.4680-1.4700 with the level completion of 1.4600-1.4620. The Monday trades finished with the pair increase which is near the resistance at the level of 1.4750-1.4770.
The support levels: 1.4600-1.4620 and the resistance levels: 1.4700-1.4720.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
We assume the pair current correction completion within the price zone of 1.4770-1.4790. Next, we expect a reversal and the British pound depreciation to the target levels of 1.4600-1.4620 and 1.4520-1.4540.
The US Treasury bond yields that finished growing last Friday and the strong resistance levels to which the pair rose led to the risk appetite decrease, so that the US dollar fell at the end of the day.
We received the money supply dynamics which is one of the indicators that points out to the monetary policy effectiveness held by the Bank of Japan. The M2 money supply aggregate rose to + 3.6% y/y in March from + 3.5% y/y while the M3 money supply aggregate increased to 3.0% y/y from 2.9% y/y. Last week was held in multidirectional trades, having reached highs of 120.70. But then the pair rebounded downwards. The yesterday trades were again with the growth and then a new decrease, the pair is targeted the test the level of 120.00-120.20.
The support levels: 120.00-120.20, and the resistance levels: 121.30-121.50.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
We recommend buying to 121.30-121.50. If the first target is overcome, the new target is the level of 122.40-122.60.