30 March 2015, EUR/USD
The euro started the previous trades with losses against the dollar and finished them with a growth. The February Germany import price index showed an increase by 1.4% m/m and up to -3.0% y/y vs. -0.8% m/m, -4.4% y/y which was better than expected 0.5% m/m, -3.9% y/y. The bulls again tried to brake through the psychological level of 1.1000-1.1020 and they again could not consolidate above this level. The euro was sold off on the growth towards 1.1000-1.1020 which led to its decrease below 1.0880-1.0900. Then the pair has increased a little bit.
The support levels are 1.0750-1.0770, and the resistance levels are 1.0900-1.0920.
MACD is in a neutral territory.
Inability to consolidate above the level of 1.1000-1.1020 and loss of the support near 1.0880-1.0900 should be seen as a negative factor that increases risks of the pair return into the downtrend channel. The support level of 1.0750-1.0770 loss will cause a decrease towards 1.0610-1.0630. The pair’s growth above 1.0900-1.0920 will jeopardize the level of 1.1000-1.1020 testing and breakthrough.
The British pound started the previous trades with a growth against the dollar. The pound received the support from the UK economic data that showed retail sales good growth in February and then it somewhat decreased. The UK news flow was represented by the Nationwide March house prices report - the index recorded a decrease by 0.1% m/m and to 5.1% y/y after -0.1% m/m, + 5.7% y/y in February while it was expected 0.2% m/m and 5.3% y/y.
Another psychological level of 1.5000-1.5020 breakthrough was unsuccessful. Afterwards the pair has broken the support level of 1.4880-1.4900 and fell below the support near 1.4770-1.4790. Now the rebounds are limited by the resistance near 1.4900-1.4920.
The support levels: 1.4750-1.4770 and the resistance levels: 1.4900-1.4920.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.
The pair inability to break through the level of 1.5000-1.5020 or at least consolidate above the 49th figure increases risks of the pair decrease resumption and its return to 1.4680-1.4700. The pair’s growth above 1.4900-1.4920 will allow bulls to retest the level of 1.5000-1.5020.
The Japanese yen was traded in the consolidation corridor against the dollar at the last trades. The household spending slightly increased -2.9% y/y in February after -5.1% y/y, the consumer price index slightly fell, but remained above the target level of 2.2% y/y after 2.4% y/y in February, but the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 3.5%. Having broken through the support near 119.05-119.25, the pair dollar/yen fell to the support near 118.15-118.35 where the demand for the dollar was still preserved that returned it to the level of 119.25-119.45.
The support levels: 117.95-118.15, and the resistance levels: 119.25-119.45.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The current trades near 119.05-119.25 which increases the growth risks continuation. The rebounds downward from this level as well as the support level of 117.95-118.15 will lead to its return to the new lows. The key for the bulls is the 120th figure.