25 March 2015, EUR/USD
The euro has grown against the dollar at the beginning of the week. It is obviously that in the light of the sentiments changes towards the dollar, provoked by the Fed statement last week, investors continue to take profits. The PMI index is expected with the production sector growth to 51.5 from 51.1 and there was no change in the service sector, 53.9 after the previous 53.9. The Germany activity indices will likely show only the production growth, but the France indicator will only show the service sector increase.
The bulls still managed to overcome the resistance near 1.0880-1.0900. It led to the pair growth to the level of 1.1000-1.1020 which is currently able to provide strong resistance. The pair rebounds are now limited by the support around 1.0880-1.0900.
The support levels are 1.0880-1.0900, and the resistance levels are 1.1000-1.1020.
MACD is in a positive territory.
We expect the pair decrease to the level of 1.0750-1.0770. Also it is possible the psychological level of 1.1000-1.1020 retesting in the short term, its breakthrough and the pair’s ability to consolidate above this level will significantly improve the euro prospects. Nevertheless, the long-term trend remains in force.
The British pound was the least interesting for purchases against the dollar and the pair finished the day with a decrease. Increased attention will cause the inflation publication. The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected with a growth on the month basis and decrease on the annual basis, + 0.4% m/m, + 0.2% y/y after -0.9% m/m, + 0.3% y/y while the basic Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is expected with a decrease to + 1.3% y/y after + 1.4% y/y in January.
Being under pressure, the pair broke through the support near the 49th figure and fell to the support 1.4880-1.4900. However, there the pound was sold off which allowed it to return towards 1.4980-1.5000. However, bulls failed to test the psychological level of 1.5000-1.5020. The pair decreased under the support level of 1.4880-1.4900.
The support levels: 1.4750-1.4770 and the resistance levels: 1.4900-1.4880.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
The 49th figure loss will lead to the support 1.4750-1.4770 retesting and its breakthrough will open the way towards 1.4680-1.4700. The pound still needs to rise up and consolidate above 1.5000-1.5020 for the upward correction continuation.
The pair dollar/Japanese yen decreased at the previous trades. The Japanese economic publication showed the manufacturing sector decline - the index fell to the level of 50.4 from 51.6 in March, it was forecasted a growth to 52.1. It is observed pessimism in the Japan stock market where Nikkei fell slightly by-0.21%. Pressure on the pair is still preserved. The dollar failed to return and consolidate above 120.00-120.20 and, as a consequence, it resumed its decline, testing the support near 119.05-119.25.
The support levels: 119.05-119.25, and the resistance levels: 120.20-120.40.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
While the pair is trading below 120.20-120.40, the downside risks near the 116th figure will be preserved. The dollar needs to rise up and consolidate above 120.20-120.40 to continue its growth.