18 March 2015, EUR/USD
The euro rebounded from the 12-year low against the US dollar, however, we expect the euro to stay under pressure as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve policy changes in opposite directions. The March business mood report from the German ZEW institute pointed out to the lower value of 54.8 when it was expected growth to 58.2 after the previous 53.0. The annual consumer price index remained unchanged at the level of 0.3% in February. The pair euro/dollar started the new trading week on a positive note, having corrected to the resistance around 1.0630-1.0650. However, pressure on the pair is still preserved and it can again test the psychological level of 1.4980-1.0500 in the short term.
The support levels are 1.0480-1.0500, and the resistance levels are 1.0630-1.0650.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The ability to consolidate above the level of 1.0480-1.0500 will give hope to the bulls for the level breakthrough of 1.0630-1.0650 and the level of 1.0770-1.0790 testing. The pair is oversold, so we should not exclude this scenario development, but it is still not necessary to talk about the base formation.
The pound has grown slightly against the dollar. The purchases started from the strong technical levels to which the pair GBP/USD decreased and it was continued amid the US weak economic data. But then the pair fell again. We expect changes in the February jobless claims number which is expected -30,0K against the earlier 38, 6K. The average wage rate with premiums can rise up to 2.2% from 2.1% in March. While the pair pound/dollar was declining to 1.4680-1.4700, speculators decided to take profits that allowed the pair to recover above the level of 1.4770-1.4790. The pair could not fixate above this level and decreased.
The support levels: 1.4680-1.4700 and the resistance levels: 1.4770-1.4790.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The next resistance is near the psychological level of 1.5000-1.5020. At the moment the large-scale correction development seems unlikely. Decline below 1.4680-1.4700 will lead to the support around 1.4600-1.4620 testing.
The pair dollar/yen was in the narrow side corridor and closed on the opening prices. The Bank of Japan decided to keep the current policy unchanged at the level of 0.10%. Also the Japanese Central Bank monetary base remained unchanged at the level of 275 trillion yen. The Japan recent inflation slowdown the BoJ connected to the oil prices decline. The leading index was 105.5 against the previous 105.1.
The pair USD/JPY stopped in the narrow range, consolidating after its growth to the fresh highs. On the underside the pair fluctuations are limited by the support near 121.10-121.30.
The support levels: 121.10-121.30, and the resistance levels: 122.40-122.60.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 122.40-122.60. The support 121.10-121.30 breakthrough will lead to the further decrease and to the 120th figure testing. The loss of this figure will call into question the dollar ability to grow further.