17 March 2015, EUR/USD
The euro reached the 12-year-old low against the US dollar, moving closer and closer towards the parity against the dollar. However the pair rebounded upwards from the new minimum. The most important week information includes the Germany ZEW business confidence report. It is expected that the index to show an increase to 60.0 from 53.0 in March while the current conditions index will rise up to 50.0 from 45.5 in February.
As a result of the last week decrease, the pair euro/dollar lost some figures, falling from 1.0900-1.0920 below 1.0480-1.0500. Its recovery attempt was limited by the resistance near 1.0684 where interest for sale is still preserved. In turn, the pair decreased below the psychological level of 1.0500 that attracted buying interest. The pair grew towards to the resistance level of 1.0610-1.0630.
The support levels are 1.0480-1.0500, and the resistance levels are 1.0630-1.0650.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The pair ability to consolidate above 1.0500 will give bulls hope for the pair recovery; the reason for it can become the oversold pair. However, the risks of the further fall towards the parity remain very high, so it is not recommended to "catch the bottom" by purchases, in any case having not protected by the insurance orders.
The pair continued its recovery from the 4.5-year low. The pound rebounded sharply from the July 2010 lows amid the dollar rebound. We expect the labor market improvement – the unemployment can be marked by a reduction to 5.6% from 5.7% while the average earnings are expected with a growth to 2.2% y/y after 2.1% y/y. However, the main driver for the GBP/USD will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
The pair failed to consolidate above the support near 1.5000-1.5020 which led to a decrease towards the support 1.4880-1.4900. Rebound towards 1 .5000-1.5020 attracted fresh interest for sale, therefore, resuming a decline, the pound broke through the level of 1.4880-1.4900 and fell to the fresh low of 1.4680-1.4700. Then the pair grew and broke through the resistance level of 1.4770-1.4790.
The support levels: 1.4750-1.4770 and the resistance levels: 1.4900-1.4920.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The pair is showing its oversold signs which can make the bears nervous and force them to take profits at the current levels. Nevertheless, we should not exclude a fall towards 1.4520-1.4540 where the bulls’ activity is possible. The pair growth towards the 49-th figure can be used for the pair sales.
The pair dollar / yen continue to consolidate in the side range and finished the previous session almost on the opening prices. Two important events will be important for the pair dollar/yen this week- the Bank of Japan meeting and the Fed similar event. Having broken through the 120th figure and having fixed above it, the pair continued to grow and test the resistance near the 122-th figure. The pair failed to consolidate above the previous broken level through high at the level of 121.30-121.50 that led to its consolidation around this level.
The support levels: 121.10-121.30, and the resistance levels: 122.40-122.60.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
The pair continues to consolidate between the current support and the fresh highs without being able to determine the direction. It is possible that a stimulus for one of these levels breakthrough will be the Janet Yellen press conference. The support loss will lead to a decrease towards the 120th figure. The resistance breakthrough may lead to a growth towards the 125th figure.