11 March 2015, EUR/USD
The pair euro/dollar lateral consolidation was stopped and the pair returned to falling. The Eurozone was not so rich with news, our attention can be drawn to the France and Italy industrial production indices where we expect a decrease by 0.4% m / m and the growth by + 0.2% m / m respectively.
The whole last week the pair euro/dollar has been under pressure and against this background, the pair fell to the support near 1.0980-1.1000. Soon, the level was broken through and it led to the pair decrease to 1.0880-1.0900. This level was also completed which allowed bears to fall below the level of 1.0750-1.0770.
The support levels are 1.0610-1.0630, and the resistance levels are 1.0770-1.0790.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The level of 1.0980-1.1000 breakthrough allows us to consider the bears’ medium-term target at the level of 1.0480-1.0500 and we consider it parity in the long term. Rebounds towards 1.1000-1.1020 can be used to short. The pair growth and ability to consolidate above that level will force to the trading strategy revision.
The British pound rose slightly against the dollar. Obviously, technical factors supported the bulls as there was no fundamental and political news that could affect the "cable" position. The February UK retail sales data by Consortium (BRC) have been published - the index showed the same growth as before, + 0.2% y/y where it was expected improvement to 0.5% y/y.
The pair GBP/USD did not manage to develop a large-scale upward correction. Having resumed its decrease, the pair has broken through the number of supports which led to the pair fall towards the support near 1.5020-1.5040. The pair recovery attempts are now limited by the frauds near 1.5160-1.5180.
The support levels: 1.5080-1.5100 and the resistance levels: 1.5100-1.5120.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The loss of the current support will lead to the pair reduction towards 1.4980-1.5000. The pound needs to rise up and consolidate above the 52nd figure for the downward pressure easing.
The Japanese yen rose against the dollar. The data that pointed to the Japan economic growth slowdown intensified the yen sales. Japan announced the monetary supply data for February – the M2 aggregate rose up to 3.5% y/y against 3.4% y/y in January and the M3 aggregate rose up to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y.
The pair was able to consolidate above the 120th figure amid the US labor market strong data. The pair continued to grow as a result the level of 121.30-121.50 was tested. The growth has been continued and the pair rose to the maximum near 121.80. but the pair decreased below 121.10-121.30.
The support levels: 120.00-120.20, and the resistance levels: 121.30-121.50.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
Undoubtedly, the upward trend continuation depends on the bulls ‘ability to cope with the frauds, placed here. In this case, we expect growth towards the 125th figure. We should not exclude some profit taking at the current levels.