20 February 2015, EUR/USD
The Fed protocols supported the euro and after their release the currency increased and leveled losses against the dollar, incurred earlier. The pair decreased. We expect the France inflation as well as the euro area consumer sentiment report. The January consumer price index (CPI) in the second EU economy is expected with a decrease. The market attention can be concentrated on the ECB's monetary policy meeting minutes. The pair euro/dollar consolidation was continued. The pair fell down to the support near 1.1320-1.1340 where it was sold off which allowed the pair to return to the resistance near 1.1440-1.1460. The pair rebounded downwards from this resistance level. At the moment, it can be noted the fresh drivers’ absence needed for the pair output from the formed range.
The support levels are 1.1320-1.1340, and the resistance levels are 1.1440-1.1460.
MACD is in a neutral territory.
In general, the risk of the euro decrease is preserved, but the bears’ failure to break through below the level of 1.1320-1.1340 can be a reason of profit fixation which will lead to the further pair decrease.
The British pound was the leader at the previous trades and strengthened against all of its major competitors. Then it formed a consolidation. The UK news will publish the (SVI) British Industry Confederation factory orders report for February, the forecast expects an increase to 7 from 4 in January. The pair GBP/USD keeps its positive sentiment and against this background the pair was able to break through the resistance near 1.5415-1.5435 and rise up to the level of 1.5470-1.5490 which implies the pair recovery continuation. Then the pair fell to the support level of 1.5395-1.5415.
The support levels: 1.5395-1.5415 and the resistance levels: 1.5490-1.5510.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
The pair can test the resistance around the 55th figure in the short term and in case of its breakthrough – the resistance around 1.5560-1.5580. The pair return below the level of 1.5330-1.5350 will weaken the bulls.
The Kuroda’s statements, the Bank of Japan governor, excluded additional monetary policy mitigation measures in the short term and put pressure on the pair. The soft tone "minutes" provoked the dollar sales and then the yen has strengthened. Nevertheless the pair recovered some lost ground. The Japan coincident economic indicators reached 110.7 in December compared with the previous month when the preliminary index value was 109.2.
The pair dollar/yen rose to the resistance around 119.25-119.45 from which the pair rebounded downwards. Then the pair rose back to the resistance level of 119.25-119.45.
The support levels: 117.95-118.15, and the resistance levels: 119.25-119.45.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.
Bulls still cannot break through the 120th figure which increases the risk of the support breakthrough near 117/95-118.15 and decrease towards the 117th figure. However, the reason for pessimism is still not present as while the dollar is trading above this support, the chances for the growth resumption remain relatively high.