19 November 2014, EUR/USD
The main Forex market pair enjoyed little demand on Tuesday. The euro demand could come from the EUR/GBP cross-rate as well as amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The UK weak inflation release can support the euro/pound cross-rate and the US PPI decline in its turn will put some pressure on the dollar. The pair’s attempt to continue its decrease was interrupted at the level of 1.2405-1.2425 area from which the pair returned back above the level of 1.2500-1.2520. The rebounds are weak that points out to the lack of the buying interest.
The support levels are 1.2480-1.2500, and the resistance levels are 1.2580-1.2600.
MACD is in a neutral territory.
The loss of the 25th figure will lead to the support near 1.2405-1.2425 testing. Nevertheless, we should not exclude the bulls’ attacks on the 26th figure while the pair is trading above the 24th figure. The level of 1.2580-1.2600 breakthrough will increase the chances for the level of 1.2660-1.2680 testing.
The main event of the day will be the UK inflation release for October. In the first month of the fourth quarter we saw the Brent oil brand sales that with the M4 aggregate money supply decline points out to the lower inflationary pressure. The UK 10 year bond yields have been showing decrease for the last two weeks that confirms the negative trend. The pair is consolidating around the resistance level of 1.5650-1.5670, but the pound failed to increase above this level. It again came under pressure and was forced to return below this level.
The support levels are 1.5580 - 1.5600, and the resistance levels are 1.5650 - 1.5670.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The levels of 1.5650-1.5670 and 1.5730-1.5750 new breakthrough will increase the likelihood of the resistance level of 1.5800-1.5820 testing.
The Japanese economy has entered the technical recession and now there will be extremely difficult for bears to reverse the upward trend. The Japan negative macroeconomic statistics amid the US strong growth for the last two quarters leaves traders no choice but to build long positions within the pair dollar/yen on the short-term price decline. The overbought dollar/yen makes the bulls nervous that was reflected in the short-term profit-taking by the players and against this background the pair fell down to 115.25-115.45. There the dollar found support, rebounded from this level and could rise up to the mark of 116.90.
The support levels: 116.05-116.25, and the resistance levels: 117.15-117.35.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
The upward movement confirms the pair buying interest at the lows and it can again test the highs at the level of 117.15-117-35 in the short term.
Ruban SergeyAnalyst of «FreshForex» company