18 November 2014, EUR/USD
We expect the euro area trade balance release for September. The euro devaluation with the seasonal exports increase points out to the moderately positive. The traders’ attention will attract the US industrial production for October. The ISM manufacturing index strong growth indicates the positive data output that will little support the US dollar. The euro closed the last week above the 25th figure and fell below the level of 1.2500-1.2520.
The support levels are 1.2405-1.2425, and the resistance levels are 1.2500-1.2520.
MACD is in a neutral territory.
The break through the 25th figure will allow the resistance level of 1.2580-1.2600 testing, its breakthrough will open the way to 1.2660-1.2680. The loss of the support level of 1.2405-1.2425 will call into question the euro ability to continue its recovery.
We should expect the side trend throughout the day amid the important macroeconomic statistics publication absence. The traders actively sold the pair pound/dollar last week and today there will be someone willing to take profits on the short positions. The UK inflation October release will be published on Tuesday November 18. With the start of a new week the pound was able to recover up to 1.5730-1.5750. However, the pair failed to consolidate above this resistance and fell below the support level of 1.5630-1.5650.
The support levels are 1.5680 - 1.5600, and the resistance levels are 1.5650 - 1.5670.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The loss of the support level of 1.5580-1.5600 will lead to the 56th figure test. The pair return above the level of 1.5730-1.5750 will allow the resistance level of 1.5800-1.5820 testing. The downtrend is still in force, the pair sales are still relevant on the growth.
The traders’ attention will be focused on the Japan's GDP release. There has been the strong private consumption decline despite the moderate salary growth. The Japanese exporters felt less confident in the third quarter that will add some negativity to the final release. The services sector growth can brighten up a bit the negative picture. Since the beginning of the new week the dollar resumed its growth and updated highs growing above the mark of 116.25-116.45.
The support levels: 116.05-116.25, and the resistance levels: 117.15-117.35.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
At the moment bulls are trying to regain control over the situation. In general we should not exclude the resistance level of 117.15-117.35 retest, but the pair is heavily overbought that creates risks for the deeper decline, possibly, towards 114.00-114.20.
Ruban SergeyAnalyst of «FreshForex» company