17 November 2014, EUR/USD
The traders’ attention will be focused on the euro area GDP release for the 3rd quarter. We observe the industrial production symbolic increase versus the previous quarter and there is a strong net exports growth. We observed the personal consumption reduction that is the negative signal for the economic growth.
The resistance level of 1.2500-1.2550 was broken and the euro/dollar attempts to develop an upward trend. The downward rebounds are limited by the local support level of 1.2405-1.2425. The negative sentiment is still preserved and the euro can test lows at the level of 1.2350 in the short term.
The support levels are 1.240-1.2500, and the resistance levels are 1.2580-1.2600.
MACD is in a neutral territory.
The euro needs to rise and consolidate above 1.2580-1.2600 to lower the downward pressure, but only the rise above 1.2800-1.2820 will give a reason to assume the base formation and the larger upward correction development.
The UK will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic reports and all traders’ attention will be focused on the US releases. The October retail sales release can please investors with the positive data. The employment growth with the seasonal factor indicates the retail sector sales increase. The UK short- and long-term differential bond yields are showing again extension. The pound/dollar fall has continued and the pair tested the support level of 1.5580-1.5600. But this support was not broken through, and the pair rebounded above the level of 1.5630-1.5650.
The support levels are 1.5630 - 1.5650, and the resistance levels are 1.5730 - 1.5750.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The next bears’ target can become the support around 1.5600. The pair is oversold, so the rebound towards 1.5730-1.5750 is possible where we should consider opening the short positions.
The October US retail growth slightly exceeded preliminary forecasts. The retail sales increased by 0.3% in October. It was supposed an increase by 0.2%. The consumer activity growth lays a strong foundation for the strong economic growth. After a minor correction in the US and Japan stock markets bulls hurry to the market, opening the "longs" at the attractive levels. The uptrend within the dollar/yen is still in force. The resistance level of 116.25-116.45 was broken through.
The support levels: 116.05-116.25, and the resistance levels: 117.15-117.35.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
The next bulls’ target can be the level of 117.15-117.35. The pair is overbought, so its sales at the current levels can lead to the certain risks.