15 October 2014, EUR/USD
The traders’ attention is focused on the ZEW institute German business climate data publication. As some economists predict the German economy can enter into a recession in the third quarter. Amid the US and German bonds spread reduction with the EUR / GBP cross-rate increase we can expect bullish sentiment prevalence within the euro.
The resistance breakthrough near the 27th figure reinforced its upward dynamics and led to the pair growth to the level of 1.2768. After the level testing the pair fell to the support around 1.2714 which was soon broken and then support was broken near the 27th figure.
The euro/dollar inability to consolidate above 1.2714-1.2700 shows continued the pair sales growth interest. The euro/dollar decrease risks and the lows test at the level of 1.2500 are still preserved. The euro return above 1.2714 will increase its chances to test the resistance around 1.2768-1.2791.
The British pound can be hit after the CPI data publication. We observed the consumer confidence decrease in September with the "black gold" sales in the exchange market that point out to the weaker inflationary pressure. The inflation expectations will be reduced. The British pound prospects against the US dollar look pretty unclear as all its growth attempts face frauds near the resistance level of 1.6118 / 31. After testing the each level the pair may fall down.
Today the pair has broken through the support near 1.6050 which can lead to its decline to 1.6000. The level breakthrough would jeopardize the lows at the level of 1.5952. The pound may grow and consolidate above 1.6131 to ease the downward pressure.
The traders’ attention will be focused on the stock markets trade dynamics amid the interesting the US and Japan macroeconomic releases absence. The Nikkei 225 futures and S&P500 stock indices showed the decline and it is difficult to expect the trend break. The "shorts" closure will be possible after the US retail sales stock market publication. After the dollar/yen unsuccessful attempts to overcome the resistance near 107.57, the pair decrease was resumed, still it was limited by the level of 106.76 where it rebounded to 107.30.
The chances for the US dollar return to the 108th figure are growing, but before it still needs to overcome the resistance near 107.57. The loss of the 107th figure will call into question the US dollar ability to rise up.