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The BoE has not suprised the market leaving the key rate unchanged

13 October 2014, EUR/USD

Euro

The BoE has not suprised the market leaving the key rate unchanged

Investors continued to take profits on the short positions that support the euro/dollar moderate demand. Inflationary expectations are falling, so traders do not rush to open the "longs". The Brent oil prices decline will put pressure on the Eurozone CPI that will also restrain the euro bulls. The pair EUR/USD was unable to continue its recovery and overcome the resistance level of 1.2800. Moreover, the pair failed to consolidate above 1.2660 and decreased below this level.

The support levels are 1.2560 - 1.2580, and the resistance levels are 1.2660 - 1.2680.

MACD is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD found a support near 1.2580 and if the pair manages to consolidate above this level, the chances to return above the level of 1.2730 will rise significantly. The loss of this support will lead to the decline to 1.2480-1.2500.

Pound

The BoE has not suprised the market leaving the key rate unchanged

The traders’ attention will be focused on the UK trade balance publication. The pound fell against its main competitors in August which can have a positive impact on the net exports. The seasonal factor indicates the positive data release – there was observed the negative trade balance decrease in most cases in August. However, the UK zero industrial production growth does not allow to count on the strong data release. The support at the level of 1.6130 was broken then the pair fell to 1.6040. The pressure is still presrved.

The support levels are 1.6020 - 1.6040, and the resistance levels are 1.6130 - 1.6150.

MACD is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We prefer to stay away from the pound selling. Its return above 1.6130-1.6150 can signal the upward dynamics resumption.

Yen

The BoE has not suprised the market leaving the key rate unchanged

We expect the Bank of Japan September monetary policy meeting publication. We have got the key milestones from Mr. Kuroda and therefore we should not expect the strong traders’ reaction to this event. Given the fact that the American stock market negative sentiment - it is difficult to count on the strong dollar/yen growth. The support level of 108.20 breakdown looks convincing as the pair was able to find a support at the level of 107.80 where we observe a consolidation.

The support levels: 107.60-107.80, and the resistance levels: 108.20-108.40.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The bears’ sentiment is unsuccessful that increases the risks of the dollar return above 108.20. In this case, we should expect the resistance level of 108.50-108.70 test.

Ruban Sergey
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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