01 October 2014, EUR/USD
Euro
The euro area inflation data are expected to be published. According to preliminary data, the Spain and Germany CPI turned out to be better than the market participants expected, however, these data are hardly positive. The German 10-year bond yield showed a moderate decline after the publication release. The drop in oil prices certainly has had a negative impact on the inflation and therefore can be expected the data release on the forecasted medians level. The euro/dollar decrease was continued. The pair sharply fell down to the support level of 1.2580.
The support levels are 1.2560 - 1.2580, and the resistance levels are 1.2660 - 1.2680.
MACD is in a negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The chances for decrease continuation are high, and in this case we should expect the support level of 1.2560-1.2580 test. The increase and the ability to consolidate above the level of 1.2710-1.2730 will signal about the upward correction development.
Pound
The traders’ attention is focused on the UK payment balance release for the second quarter. The negative trade balance growth with the BoE gold reserves reduction point out to the payments negative balance increase. In this context, we can expect that the news will be worse than the forecasted medians and will put pressure on the GBP/USD. The pound/dollar decrease is to be continued.
The support levels are 1.6180 - 1.6200, and the resistance levels are 1.6300 - 1.6320.
MACD is in a negative territory.
Trading recommendations
To continue the growth the pair needs to rise higher and consolidate above the level of 1.6300. Otherwise the bears will attack again the current support.
Yen
Japan will publish a set of important macroeconomic statistics. In July, we observed the wage level increase which is a positive factor for the retail sales. The August inflation decreased only by 0.1% in Japan. In August, we observed an exports level decrease which does not let us count on the strong industrial production data release. The US dollar and the Japanese yen reached new highs above the level of 109.20.
The support levels: 109.00-109.20, and the resistance levels: 110.00-110.20.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
Trading recommendations
At the moment, the attempts to continue the growth will lead to the psychological level of 110.00 that can activate the bears. The pair is heavily overbought that creates risks for a downward correction.
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