20 August 2014, EUR/USD
The "black gold" decrease together with the lack of hourly wages growth and the retail sales in July indicate a contraction of inflationary pressures. Against this background, we can expect the release of data slightly worse than the forecasted median which will add some pressure on the American dollar as the compression inflationary pressures to cool down those investors who are counting on the USA monetary policy rapid tightening.
The single currency was unable to consolidate above the 34th figure and continued to fall. As a result "bears" tested the 1.3352 mark.
The support levels are 1.3330 - 1.3300, and the resistance levels are 1.3375 - 1.3400.
MACD is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.
The pair can still fall to the 33rd figure, its break may lead to 1.3270. Nevertheless, the risks of the bottom formation and the upward correction development grow. We should expect the next test of the resistance in the range 13397-1.3431. Break of the latter will lead to an increase to the level to 1.3480 and possibly to 1.3550, from where we can open shorts.
The UK national statistics office released the CPI. The inflation is reduced due to lower energy prices, as well as wage cuts. In June, the average earnings index was released in the negative region for the first time since April 2009, which is very negative for the consumer price index. In this context, we can expect the inflationary pressure compression in the region 1.6% - 1.7% per annum, which is below the Bank of England target level.
The support levels are 1.6640 - 1.6620 and the resistance levels are 1.6720 - 1.6750.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The downside risks lowering to the current lows still remain, although the pair can still get back above 1.6720 and grow towards the 69th figure.
We expect swings in a pair dollar/yen. The USA inflation reduction in July will support short-term bearish sentiment and we can expect the price drop to 102.30 -102.00. In this area, the American dollar may be supported by the Japan and the USA stock market which are now at the side of the bulls. The USA CPI decline is very positive news that can postpone for a while talk about the interest rates growth.
The support levels: 102.70- 102.80 and the resistance levels: 103.00- 103.10.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.
The pair broke 102.70. If the price does not bounce downwards from the current level as it has happened many times before it may reach the local maximum the level of 103.