14 August 2014, EUR/USD
The ZEW Institute release shows that Germany begins to suffer the full geopolitical tensions in the world. If the Eurozone locomotive has problems the whole Eurozone will have! The oil was traded near the year and this support break will negatively impact on the inflation. The USA published the retail sales report for July.
The leading indicators show the positive data - employment growth, coupled with a strong consumer confidence release from the Conference Board can support the sales in the retail sector.
The support levels are 1.3330 - 1.3300, and the resistance levels are 1.3375 - 1.3400.
MACD is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.
We expect the downtrend to be continued to the first strong support level 1.3295. Still we believe the pair will correct upwards first. The growth targets are 1.3375 and 1.3430.
After a long break the UK will please traders with important macroeconomic statistics. It is worth noting that the reports will cause a mixed reaction from market participants. The employment data should show a reduction in unemployment which is favorable for the British currency and we expect the monetary tightening.
Eurozone has already experienced on itself the energy price declining effect - the United Kingdom is the next in the line. The mixed news background may cause the volatility wave and the pair can test the upper and lower boundaries of the trading range.
The support levels are 1.6640 - 1.6620 and the resistance levels are 1.6720 - 1.6750.
MACD is in a negative territory.
The pound can test the support at 1.6640, a break of which will lead to a fall to 1.6570.
After a strong growth in the first three months of this year - in the second quarter we should expect a significant downturn caused by the increase in the tax burden as well as the strengthening of the Japanese yen. Increasing the sales tax rate has caused a sharp reduction in household spending and the growth of quotations of the national currency had a negative impact on industrial production and export. In this context, we expect the news release on the level of the median forecasts or slightly worse which will support a moderate demand for the pair dollar/yen. The support levels: 102.30- 102.50 and the resistance levels: 102.70- 102.80.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
The price has not set the direction yet. In the near future we can see how the price goes to the bottom border and the continued growth of the pair. It is not clear what direction is chosen by the price, we advise to stay away from the market.