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The British GBP has not impacted the pound

28 July 2014, EUR/USD


The euro/dollar moderate price growth should be considered as the short-term correction and it should be used to short. The investors' attention will be focused on the IFO institute data publication on the business climate index in Germany. Two consecutive months of business climate index decrease and negative macroeconomic statistics show a continued downward trend. After the support at 1.3475 breaking and a decrease to 1.3455, the euro/dollar is consolidated between these levels. The market activity was very low. The pair fell to 1.3438.

The support levels are 1.3400- 1.3420, and the resistance levels are 1.3480 - 1.3500.

MACD is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The negative outlook remains while the bounces towards 1.3500-1.3534 should not be excluded.


The market participant's focus is directed to the UK's GDP data publication. The pound high rate against the euro and the dollar also carries the risks for the United Kingdom economy. Against this background, we can expect the data on the forecasted medians level of 0.1%, or worse, that will pressure the British currency. But the pair was sold there, as it broke support at 1.7070 and tested the 1.6980 level. The tested support is limiting the recovery attempts.

The support levels are 1.6960 - 1.6980, and the resistance levels are 1.7070 - 1.7090.

MACD is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

Apparently, the pound/dollar tries to develop a downward correction, and the next target is the level of 1.6000, which break will increase the downward pressure. It is necessary to return the pound above 1.7070 to weaken the pressure.


Japan will publish the data on inflation which is always closely monitored by the FX market participants. The leading indicators show the mixed trend: the aggregate money supply M-2 shows a decline for 5 months in a row, indicating the inflationary pressures contraction, with the oil price increase in June, which looks as important inflationary component. Nevertheless the resistance around 102.00 continues to cope with its task.

The support levels: 101.50- 101.70, and the resistance levels: 102.00- 102.20.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The bulls don’t give up on the dollar/yen: they returned the pair above the broken downward support 101.70. The pair is close to 102.00 and its breakthrough will lead to the next embattled level of 102.30 testing.

Ruban Sergey
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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