30 May 2014, EUR/USD
The euro/dollar remains under pressure due to the market participants concerns about the upcoming June euro weakening during the European Central Bank monetary policy easing. The elections results to the European Parliament and the eurosceptic parties increase also supports the euro strengthening and the dollar weakening. The economists expect further the U.S. economy growth against the slowing Eurozone economic growth backdrop in April.
The support levels are 1.3590- 1.3600, and the resistance levels are 1.3650 - 1.3670.
MACD is in negative territory. The histogram is descending.
If the pair consolidates above the sloping channel or breaks the resistance 1.3638 we may get the positive medium-term outlook for the euro area growth to the resistance 1.3669 and above.
The British pound downward correction is gaining strength. We believe that The Bank of England will not raise interest rates until the second quarter of 2015. We think the correction may continue for a while, still the incoming macroeconomic data for the UK will continue to be monitored closely by the market participants.
The support levels are 1.6700 - 1.6730, and the resistance levels are 1.67700 - 1.6800.
MACD histogram is lowering thus giving a sell signal.
The indicators show the bearish trend further development. The fact that the price has fallen below 1.6680/70 shows bears’ potential which can lower the pair at least to the level 1.6480/60.
According to the analysts, there are high upside risks for the Japanese currency. Experts expect the pair downward movement. The Japanese officials say that the quantitative easing program has already brought significant benefits to the national economy, and in particular it applies to the inflation rate which increased markedly in the region after the QE start. There were the conversations about a possible imminent bonds redemption decommissioning in the Bank of Japan which, of course, put downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
The significant driver for the USD/JPY pair may become the U.S. GDP report.
The support levels: 101.70- 101.80, and the resistance levels: 102.00- 102.20.
The MACD is at a zero line.
We expect the continued decrease. The support 101.60 break will lead to the drop to 100.85. The growth and ability to consolidate above 102nd figure will deprive "bears" hopes for the downward correction resumption.