12 May 2014, EUR/USD
We will see a decrease in the euro/dollar after Mario Draghi press-conference. On the eve the speculators were drove in the classic "bull" trap and today "bears" will dictate the game rules again. The German trade balance for March was published with the opening of the European session report on Friday. Recently, we got a whole batch of negative macroeconomic statistics from the leading Eurozone economies, and there is as little prerequisites for positive data output. In general, during the day we can expect the downward trend where the nearest strong support level is 1.3810.
The support levels are 1.3720- 1.3740, and the resistance levels are 1.3810 - 1.3830.
MACD is pointing down, showing the downtrend movement.
EUR/USD rose to 1.3992 and has not held 8 points to 1.40. Euro bulls did not stay long at 1.40 the pair fell. We expect that the pressure on the euro (EUR) will be kept and the potential bears targets will be 1.3785 and 1.3695.
The United Kingdom economy shows conflicting reports – the positive data is replaced by the negative. If we get good releases we can wait for the last week maximum update located at 1.6995 area. Otherwise, we are waiting for a decrease to 69th figure. The important macroeconomic statistics publication is not scheduled on the U.S. trading session so we can expect a consolidation after the European traders leave the market.
The support levels are 1.6840 - 1.6860, and the resistance levels are 1.6910 - 1.6920.
MACD is pointing down showing the downtrend.
The bearish sentiment may increase. As a confirmation we need to wait for the support level 1.6900 breakdown which could open the way to the levels 1.6850 and 1.6800.
Lack of strong global demand action supports "bears". For a confirmed upside growth we need strong "drivers" which are now not in sight. There are no important macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and Japan so we can expect the side trend development during the day.
The support levels: 101.50- 101.70, the resistance levels: 102.23- 102.43.
MACD is horizontal, the indicator does not give clear signals.
Another 101.40 support level retest is likely to be followed by the consolidation after the price upwards rebound. The potential upside target might be the resistance level 102.00.