01 May 2014, EUR/USD
The negative background shall cheer the "bears" up go short and we can expect the price to go down to the support level 1.3820. Investors' attention is focused on the USA GDP data for the 1st quarter.
The euro/dollar continued to grow until the market received the Germany consumer price inflation index. Its slowdown adversely affected the single currency dynamics which fell to 1.3811. Now attempts to attract the interest of the growth in sales so kickbacks are limited by resistance at 1.3830.
The EUR/USD future does not look well as shown by the indicators, however, the "bears" still need to break through support at 1.3784 to go down. In this case we expect the price to go down and test support at 1.3720.
The UK's GDP published data did not inspire the "bulls" and the pair fell after testing 1.6846 support to the 68th figure. After the Germany consumer price inflation index release helped the pair again unsuccessfully to test the last maximum. Being pressurized the pair fell to 1.6819 from where it managed to grow. The pair made new high and is trading above 1.6870.
The pair keeps surprising us. No one believed that the pair has power to grow when it jumped upward yesterday and set new high. Now we wonder whether the GBP/USD to continue its way upward or it is the last exhale of the growth. If the growth is continued the pair may reach 1.6900 and 1.6930 soon.
U.S. employment statistics by ADP and Q1 GDP will not be able to support the demand for the dollar - we can expect the release of data on the level of consensus - forecast with small deviations. The only thing that can cheer "bull" to open long positions is U.S. Federal Reserve decision to cut Q3 to $ 10 billion from May 1.
"Bulls" did not manage to get the pair back on a sustainable growth path. Another attempt to break through the resistance at 102.77 failed, and the dollar was forced to retreat to 102.20.
The overall picture is neutral. In the short term the dollar may test the 102-th figure. Its breakout may lead to 101.59-101.22 testing. The last level lost may amplify the "bearish" pressure.