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The UK retail sales are slowing down

29 April 2014, EUR/USD


The UK retail sales are slowing down

The Ukrainian Armed Forces military operation in the south-east of the country reinforces the geopolitical risks, prompting the investors to exit risky assets. In the lights of this, we can expect the euro/dollar pair moderate price drop.

The pair uncertainty persists. However, due to the descending channel test formation and the divergence on volumes in the short term the traders can take the initiative in their own hands.

The support levels are 1.3790- 1.3810, and the resistance levels are 1.3860 - 1.3880.

MACD is pointing up, indicating the current uptrend.

Trading Recommendations

Indicators are neutral and do not show a clear signal. We have to wait a confident going off the range, which can be facilitated by the macroeconomic statistics published this week, namely, consumer price inflation in the euro zone and Germany, as well as a report on non-farm payrolls in the USA.


The UK retail sales are slowing down

There was not interesting reports in the UK, the moderately downward trend is expected for two reasons. The first, geopolitical tensions in the world will support the demand for the U.S. dollar. The second, the foreign exchange market participants understand that the pound high rate will provide the downside risks to the United Kingdom economy, and it's not worth of waiting for the strong “cable” growth. Even the positive retail sales release in March did not help the “bulls” to overcome the strong 1.6841 resistance.

Currently, the price is above the rising trend line support level 1.6780 and 1.6760. The basic price levels support the prices` growth, the “bulls” continue to trend upwards.

The support levels are 1.6780 - 1.6800, and the resistance levels are 1.6860 - 1.6880.

MACD is in zero area, indicating the current corrective movement rates.

Trading Recommendations

Situation with the pound/dollar pair is similar to the euro/dollar`s one. The GBP/USD oscillated in a narrow range, limited support in the area 1.6762 and the resistance at 1.6840. A sustained break range shows the pair’s further movement.


The UK retail sales are slowing down

It is possible to expect the demand for the Japanese currency continuation. The correction on the world's leading stock markets amid the Ukraine conflict strengthens the yen and lowers the USD/JPY, respectively. The report on retail in Japan in March will be published. The CPI growth rate together with the corporations’ tax burden lowering effect (sales tax rate of 5%) indicates an increase in the retail sector, which is favorable for the national currency. So, we can expect the dollar/yen pair gradual decline, where the first support level is 101.72.

The support levels: 102.10 - 102.30, and the resistance levels: 102.60- 102.80.

MACD is pointing down, indicating the current downtrend.

Trading Recommendations

The inability to rise up above 102.72 for the pair is a negative factor. The USD/JPY may test the support at 101.59 in the short term.

Ruban Sergey
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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