Dollar reversal is expected
19 February 2014, EUR/USD
The euro was supported by the prospects of forming a new government in Italy and a possible improvement in the economy in the euro zone. Amid an empty calendar and a "thin" market the pair euro/dollar will be supported by the UK news which began to publish important statistics. We do not believe the pair to grow much due to the serious problems in the Euro zone economy: a threat of deflation processes, leading European banks problems and very high unemployment rates in the periphery. In the event of a weak release, we will see a decrease in the medium-term level of support 1.3655.
Today we see the following levels: the support levels: 1.3698-1.3655 and the resistance levels: 1.3740-1.3810.
The situation remains the same: bulls need to overcome the resistance level in the region 1.3760 to continue its growth. This level break will open the way to 38th figure. Inability to break above will provoke the profit fixing and a decrease towards 1.3660.
Many institutional investors expect the Japanese regulator to continue further monetary policy easing, due to the sales tax increase in April. However, the Bank of Japan has stated that it doesn’t expect a significant decline in the second quarter of this year and we can expect that the first controller would prefer to wait for the sales tax increase, to assess its negative impact on private consumption and consumer prices. The market positive sentiment is favorable for the pair USD / JPY. The support levels: 101.78 - 101.15 and the resistance ones: 102.16 - 102.60.
The pair is returned back above the resistance around 101.60. Buying from the support 101.59 shows a continued strength of bulls, but as long as the resistance 102.74 holds them onslaught risks falling below 101.59.
The pound is correcting after reaching November 2009’s peak that was reached after the next portion of solid economic data publication. There are no special reason to fall, except profit taking and an overbought course. We believe the growth will be continued.
An upward trend for was stopped at 1.6800. If using the resistance 1.6800 will not be knocked up after foundation news releases, the pair is expected to continue its correction. The potential targets for a rollback are 1.6640, or a rising trend line 1.6660.
Ruban SergeyAnalyst of «FreshForex» company
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