10 May 2021, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 266,000 jobs last month after rising by 770,000 in March, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report. The unexpected slowdown in job growth was likely due to shortages of workers and raw materials as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. The number was so out of consensus that I think the market expectation of super-high rates and a squeeze on inflation is going to go down by the wayside. Eurodollar futures, which are a proxy for interest rate expectations, showed a 90% chance of an interest rate hike in March 2023, and fully priced in a hike in June 2023. Prior to the report, investors were betting there was a 90% chance of a hike in December 2022, and a 100% chance in March 2023.
Investment idea: buy 1.2130 and take profit 1.2180.
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