21 February 2019, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
Federal Reserve expressed a willingness to end its balance sheet unwinding program later this year and keep rate hikes on hold even as the inflation trended near target and the labor market remained strong. The minutes also showed that central bank was willing to keep rate hikes on pause. In sign of aversion to tightening monetary policy, the Fed ditched its usual reference to "gradual" rate hikes included in its statement at its previous meeting, fueling expectations the central bank may not raise rates at all this year. Investors were waiting for such an outcome and for the dollar it is a neutral factor.
Trading recommendation: flat 1.1300-1.1380.
GBPUSD trading plan:
British factory orders picked up this month after dipping in January, a survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed. Export order growth also strengthened, though manufacturers expected output growth to slow over the next three months from the above-average rates predicted in December and January. This is a good signal for the UK currency. The next positive signal is the growing oil prices. The pound sterling has a direct correlation with oil. OPEC members had pledged to cut production in line with their current output agreement in the coming months in an effort to stabilize oil prices. Oil prices are up more than 20% since the turn of the year, underpinned by production cuts from OPEC members and supply outages in Venezuela and Iran amid U.S. sanctions.
Trading recommendation: Buy 1.3020 and take profit 1.3085.
USDJPY trading plan:
U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that discussions were going well and suggested he was open to pushing off the deadline to complete negotiations, saying March 1 was not a "magical" date. U.S. stocks grow up after the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from its January meeting, when the U.S. central bank said it would be "patient" with respect to further interest rate hikes. Traders buy shares on American, European and Asian exchanges. USDJPY and S&P500 have a direct correlation.
Trading recommendation: Buy 110.53 and take profit 111.04.
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