14 May 2014, EUR/USD
Euro
The euro lost 0.3% against the dollar and is traded at one-month low after the news that Germany CenterBank supported the monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank next month. Earlier this week, the pair was between the levels 1.3749 and 1.3774. The ECB expects that inflation expectations decline in the short term, still the main ECB criterion for the June will be a medium-term inflation outlook. Another factor, overseen by the ECB leadership - is the high rate of the euro and its impact on inflation.
The support levels are 1.3660- 1.3680, and the resistance levels are 1.3740 - 1.3760.
MACD is pointing down, indicating the current downtrend movement rates.
Trading recommendations
The bears still control the pair. 1.3700 break would lead to testing, the next support is at 1.3643-1.3618.
Pound
Confederation of British Industry (SBI) on Monday raised its forecasts for the economic growth in the UK in 2014-2015. The GDP growth forecast for 2014 was raised to 3% from 2.6%, and in 2015 - to 2.7% from 2.5%. CBI expects the Bank of England will raise its interest rate in the first quarter of 2015.
The pound/dollar showed negative dynamics having tested 1.6830. The pair is still under pressure. The drop risks are kept.
The support levels are 1.6780 - 1.6800, and the resistance levels are 1.6860 - 1.6880.
MACD is pointing down, indicating the current downtrend movement rates.
Trading recommendations
The break of the current support will lead to 1.6770, the next support is at 1.6700-1.6660 area. The growth above 1.6920 would jeopardize current high at 1.6996.
Yen
Surplus of the current account balance fell more than expected in March - the surplus fell to 116.4 billion yen against the forecast 347.7 billion yen. The surplus of the current account balance for the whole of Japan 2013th fiscal year ended in late March - was 789.9 billion yen - the lowest figure in the history since 1985. We expect a consolidation at the 102 figure amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics.
The support levels: 101.50- 101.70, and the resistance levels: 102.23- 102.43.
The MACD is growing.
Trading recommendations
The retail sales in the United States can reassure the "bulls" to open long positions which may trigger the quotations growth to 102.70. The further growth is difficult due to the lack of strong "drivers".
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