S&P500 is under the thumb of bears | 19 Junho 2015

Forecast for the week 15 - 19 of June:

XAU/USD:

The main event of the week and month will be the meeting of Fed Reserve on June 17, Wednesday. Financial institutes will look for an orienting point from it on change of the monetary policy. The most part of released macroeconomic indicators point for recovery of the US economy after decline of the first quarter. In this regard, FED will show markets that it is ready to decide on increase of rates as soon as this Autumn. Dynamics of public debt market also confirms this tendency. The past week, yield of 2 years' treasuries reflecting expectations of investors on FRS rates has again soared up to 4 years' High. It says that the market is expecting that the monetary policy will be toughened soon. In this regard, we may expect consolidation of the US dollar. Since cost of the gold is nominated in USD, this metal will be under pressure especially in the second half of the week. In the first half of the week, prior to the FOMC meeting , we may expect a moderate increase of golden quotations as inflow of capital is caused by leave of investors from global stock market. This is traditionally a positive factor for gold. So, this week we should open Sell positions on growth of quotations to the area 1189/1196 and take profit on the point 1163.

XPT/USD and XPD/USD:

This week we shall expect continuation of ascending tendency. Both metals could not avail from weakness of the US dollar, so, we may assume that interest of investors is low. Taking into account that we expect positive comments of FOMC regarding US economy as well as toughening of the monetary policy, both metals can be start sold again as US dollar is growing. Though you don't need to open Sell positions in the beginning of the week, because current levels are not attractive for opening short positions. These metals are heavily oversold and thus, they can show a correctional growth before the meeting of Fed Reserves. So, this week on XPT/USD we should open Sell positions on growth of quotations to the area 1116/1169 and take profit on the point 1085. As for XPD/USD, we should open Sell positions on growth of quotations to the area 756/767 and take profit at the point 730.

S&P500:

This week investors will raise short positions on growth of quotations . The meeting of Fed Reserve on June 17 will bring only frustration to the stock market. US economy is recovering and the monetary regulator will come from toughening of the monetary policy. That is confirmed by a negative reaction of traders to Friday's release on consumer confidence by Michigan University. This report tells about growth of consumer expenses and strong data speak for the coming decision of FRS to toughen policy. This is a negative factor for the stock market, because raise of rates of federal funds will affect financial accountancy of US corporations. More over, revaluation of the national currency will start to work against exporters gradually. This week, we should open Sell positions on growth of quotations to the area 2100/2115 and take profit at the point 2065.