30 December 2022, USD/JPY
USDJPY trading plan:
Bid-ask spreads on US Treasuries famously widened in the great 2022 bond bear market, but research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests they still remained below pandemic highs. By other measures, things proved more problematic. A gauge of how much Treasury yields are deviating from a fair-value model jumped near the highest since 2010. Even Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed concerns over bond liquidity. However, the Fed research also suggests that poor liquidity in the five- and 10-year note is broadly in line with the overall volatility of the market and trading volumes have held up. Other market participants say things are at least beginning to improve, especially in light of the fact that the bond selloff has eased of late. This is a negative signal for the dollar.
Investment idea: sell 132.55 and take profit 132.00.
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