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Advance GDP

Advance GDP is the first publication of GDP data from series of subsequent publication of GDP values “advance – provisional –final”. In the USA publication of advance value takes place in the first month of every quarter by the Department of Trade and Commerce, after 20-s, usually at 8.30 a.m of New York time (4.30 p.m Moscow time)

The data is published for recent quarter (i.e., in January – for IV quarter of recent year, in April – for the I of current year etc.) and is expressed in annual value, that is to say, quarter value is raised to 4rd power. Upon that, traditional report is not published in dollars or other currency, but is expressed as percentage to the previous quarter.

Advance GDP often strongly differ from final value, but nevertheless play a significance role for the market, because in general credibly convey tendencies of economic development of the state. Below we provide more details on publication of advance GDP of the USA – country taking the first place by size of GDP in the world. We will compare this data to the final value and thereby will find out how much these values differ from each other.

Date Period

Advance value

Final value

26.04.2013

I quarter

2.5%

-

30.01.2013

IV quarter

−0.1%

0.4%

26.10.2012

III quarter

2.0%

3.1%

27.07.2012

II quarter

1.5%

1.3%

27.04.2012

I quarter

2.2%

1.9%

27.01.2012

IV quarter

2.8%

3.0%

27.10.2011

III quarter

2.5%

1.8%

29.07.2011

II quarter

1.3%

1.3%

28.04.2011

I quarter

1.8%

1.9%

28.01.2011

IV quarter

3.2%

3.1%

29.10.2010

III quarter

2.0%

2.6%

30.07.2010

II quarter

2.4%

1.7%

30.04.2010

I quarter

3.2%

2.7%

29.01.2010

IV quarter

5.6%

5.6%

As we can see from the above table, from Jan 2010 on average the difference between advance and final value is 0,38% that is not really as small difference, and only once those figures matched.

Prior to publication, various groups of experts in the finance field report about their expected GDP data. However, due to errors and complications of measurement, often predicted value seriously differs from one published by the Department of Trade and Commerce. Short-term respond of market to publication of actual value basically depend on the extent it will differ from expected. There is no clear trading strategy allowing to trade successfully in the moment of reporting this data, so we will give a more common recommendation to be more careful than usually.

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