Gold is not fated to spread the wings
Forecast October 5 & ndash; October 9:
During the week we should increment short positions on growth of quotations. Expectations on inflation in G-7 are still quite low. In September, the leader in terms of low yield of 10-years' government bonds, which reflected investors' inflation expectations, was the UK & ndash; for the first month of autumn the yield decreased by 20 p. In the United States pace of decline is less than 10 p. Preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone for September is also disappointing & ndash; CPI went went negative by 0.1% against the same period in 2014. It is impossible to ignore dynamics of & ldquo; black gold & rdquo ;, because oil is not only an energy carrier, but also an important component of inflation. In September, reserves of crude oil and gasoline in the United States significantly increased , which indicate decline in demand in oil caused by the end of the driving season. On Friday, October 2, the Russian government has reported that oil production in September reached its peak in the post-Soviet period. Oil supply in the world is still increasing, and demand is reduced on the background of the completion of the driving season in the United States and Europe, as well as the economic slowdown in China. Since there are no preconditions for growth of consumer prices, financial institutions will have to purchase the precious metal. This week we shall open Sell position on growth of quotations to 1148/1159 and take profit around 1107.
XPT/USD and XPD/USD:
During the week we should expect predominance of bulls. Firstly, release of negative report on the US labor market will put pressure on the dollar in the short term, that will put a positive impact on quotations of industrial metals, as the cost of raw materials is denominated in US currency. Secondly, the United States reported increase in car sales in the domestic market, which will increase production of automotive catalysts and support demand in platinum group metals. It should also be noted that the last week platinum reached the psychological level $ 900 per ounce and in this regard we can expect to take profit on short positions. Palladium, on the contrary, in the last four trading weeks demonstrates an upward trend and the growth potential here is more modest.This week we shall open Buy trades with XPT/USD on decline to 902/890 and take profit around 945 as well as Buy trades with XPD/USD on decline to 687/670 to take profit around 701.
In the third quarter, this index has lost 7%, which is the weakest result over the past 4 years. Correction, which has been discussed by investors at the beginning of 2014, has started. The negative labor market data for September confirm fears of investors in relation to the fact that a strong dollar affects the American economy. In the third quarter, the US economy had created 523 thousand new jobs openings, which is by 26.5% less than in the same period last year and by 24.4% less than in the second quarter. Large losses were sustained by the manufacturing sector, which in the third quarter lost 15 thousand job places. Against this backdrop, investors continue to reduce the proportion of shares in their portfolios. & ldquo; The appetite for risk & rdquo; reduced, and & ndash; active traders sell stocks with high P/E ratio and switch to a & ldquo; safer & rdquo; utilities sector. The utilities sector the only one which was able to beat the index S & amp; P500 the last week. In the coming five days, we expect publication of data on business climate in the service sector from the ISM, as well as the trade balance for August. The first release can be negative in the light of weak data on the labor market, as well as the report on the business climate in the manufacturing sector. With respect to the data on its trade balance, in the second half of the summer the US dollar showed slight deviations that should not cause a strong increase in the negative balance This week we shall open Sell position on growth of quotations to 1961/1999 иand take profit around 1911.
Alexander GoryachevAnalyst of «FreshForex» company
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