U.S. National Retail Federation released a report that expresses confidence that the consumer will remain resilient, even in the face of coronavirus events. Retail sales will rise 3.5% to 4.1% to between $3.93 trillion and $3.95 trillion in 2020, the NRF said. Online sales will be up between 12% and 15%. The University of Michigan said its February consumer sentiment index came in at 101, up from 99.8 in January. This is a positive signal for retail and the American economy. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said. This is a negative signal for the U.S. stock market!
Trading recommendation: Buy 2990 and take profit 3030
We are expecting an uptrend to develop this week. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production pulled back in December from record highs reached a month earlier. Output in the Gulf of Mexico fell 47,000 bpd and North Dakota production dropped by 40,000 bpd, according to a separate EIA monthly publication. Wall Street’s fast-paced selling strengthened calls for a Federal Reserve rescue mission. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell appeared to answer the call. Powell flagged the coronavirus as "evolving risk" and pledged to support the broader economy. This is a positive signal for the oil market!
Trading recommendation: Buy 46.10 and take profit 47.00
Good and bad news for the gold. The somber readings provide the first official snapshot of the Chinese economy's state since the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic which has killed almost 3,000 people in mainland China and infected about 80,000. China's official Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a record low of 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January. Gold was a safe haven that many investors piled into over the past month as tremors over the coronavirus crisis slowly built. Changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may have a negative impact on the value of gold. Gold tumbled more than 3% on Friday.
Trading recommendation: range 1575 -1625.