Greek referendum will set a trend | 10 July 2015

Referendum in Greece is about to set a trend

Forecast for the week July 6 - 10 :

XAU/USD:

Resolution of the question with “Greek debt” will set dynamics for the first half of the trading week. New negotiations between Athens and trio of creditors are scheduled for July 6. If parties are able to reach consensus, we will witness decline of quotations. Otherwise, investors will leave to safe assets and gold can become in a greater demand. Now it is hard to state if a compromise can be found. Based on comments of the past week, we can expect a positive resolution of the “Greek debt” issue.

We also cannot neglect dynamics of oil. The first time for the last 7 months, USA reached growth of drill units which, along with expectations of lifting of sanctions from Iran will contribute to sales on the oil market. In its turn, this is a negative factor for a precious metal because it aggravates expectations of inflation.

This week, we should open Sell positions on growth of quotations to the area 1150 and take profit on the point 1141.

XPT/USD and XPD/USD:

Bears are expected to dominate over the coming week. Slowdown of the economic growth on China, along with decline of car production in the USA for June indicates a slight demand in industrial metals. It should be noted that the last trading week we had been witnessing a bearish trend on most part of trading assets, which is positive for the US currency and will press on quotations of both metals. Besides, after strong sales of platinum and palladium in June investors are not ready to increment their long positions and will wait for more attractive levels – update of Lows of the current year. This week, we should open Sell positions with XPT/USD on growth of quotations to the area 1095/1110 and take profit on the point 1065 and Sell positions with XPD/USD on growth of quotations to the area 697/708 and take profit on the point 669.

S&P500:

This week we shall expect a moderate growth of quotations. First, we can expect a positive resolution of the “Greek debt” issue, which would encourage investors to open long positions following to sales of the past week. Secondly, following to release of the weak June's report on the US average salary, yield of the 2 year's US treasuries dropped by 7 p down to 0.63%, which indicates lowered expectations regarding increase of the interested rate in September. In its turn, this factor is positive for the US stock market. So, in a short run, we may expect recovery of the US stock market. this week we should open Buy positions on decline of quotations to the area 2060/2047 and take profit on the point 2095.